BREAKTHROUGH in the deadlock between the Irish and British governments on how arms decommissioning will be handled in the June 10th talks is anticipated at tomorrow's Anglo Irish Intergovernmental Conference meeting in Dublin.
The Tanaiste, Mr Spring, will meet the Northern Secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew, in a fresh attempt to resolve the decommissioning issue but, with the Northern elections due to take place next Thursday, the possibility of a breakthrough prior to voting is believed to be remote in political circles in both London and Dublin.
Mr Spring is expected to persist with his argument that, while the Government would like to see decommissioning at an early stage, it is simply not achievable until "some political dynamic is in place wherein the issue of weapons can be dealt with", informed sources said.
Nothing concrete is likely to emanate from tomorrow's discussions at Iveagh House. Pessimism in Dublin over the prospect of immediate progress is compounded by a deeply vulnerable British government's reluctance to further antagonise the Ulster Unionist Party by appearing to make concessions.
Attempts to reach agreement on the involvement of Mr George Mitchell in the all party talks are also expected to be made by the Tanaiste and Northern Secretary, but it is understood that the former US senator has made it clear that he will not become engaged in the talks process unless he is invited to do so by both governments. His position would have to be clarified in advance of the negotiations and the Clinton administration is reluctant to become involved in talks which could fall on the issue of decommissioning.
Meanwhile, republican sources reacted with scepticism to reports in yesterday's Observer to the effect that the British government was prepared to permit detailed discussions on constitutional and political issues at all party talks before the IRA started handing over as weapons. According to the report, this would be conditional on republicans providing a commitment at the outset that the IRA would decommission sooner rather than later during the talks. Republican sources last night again ruled out parallel decommissioning.
However, Mr David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist Party leader, said that equipment of some sort would have to be handed over during the "opening session" of the talks. Agreement had to be forthcoming on how decommissioning was going to be implemented and honoured. In the opening session, which might last days or weeks, his party wanted to see actual product coming forward".
The British Labour Party's spokeswoman on Northern Ireland, Dr Mo Mowlam, said that, if the IRA army council reinstated its ceasefire "five minutes" before the midnight deadline on June 9th, Sinn Fein should be admitted to the negotiations.
Her position on decommissioning was less clear. Speaking in a BBC interview, she said that she had no preference between a date being set for handing in weapons at the beginning of the round table talks or discussion of decommissioning in "parallel talks".
Meanwhile, as parties in the North continued campaigning ahead of Thursday's poll, Mr Robert McCartney, of the UK Unionist Party, claimed that canvass returns indicated that his grouping would take a significant number of seats.
Without referring to an IRA ceasefire, Sinn Fein demanded that Thursday's elections should ensure automatic entry for the party to inclusive political negotiations. Mr Martin McGuinness called on both governments to accept the "democratic imperative" of the ballot box.