UPPER Bann is, in many ways, a microcosm of Northern Ireland as a whole. The religious breakdown, at 38.5 and 61.5 per cent, mirrors almost exactly that of the rest of the state. The urban conurbation of Lurgan-Craigavon-Portadown contains the same social problems of cities like Belfast and Derry, while the degree of wealth in the constituency is illustrated by the fact that 400 acres outside the village of Magheralin sold recently for £2 million. The now-famous church at Drumcree is in the middle of the constituency.
His spirited defence of the right of Orangemen to march at Drumcree has ensured that the seat of Ulster Unionist leader, David Trimble, is safe. While the Democratic Unionist Party is standing a candidate, Mr Mervyn Carrick, in this constituency for the first time since 1983, he is not seen as a serious contender, although he will reduce Mr Trimble's majority somewhat.
Magheralin, just off the motorway to the north of the constituency, is becoming a commuter village for people working in Belfast. Several new private estates have been built around the village and there was a warm welcome for the Unionist leader as he ran nimbly from house to house.
The reaction of one elderly lady was typical: "I'm glad to see you, Mr Trimble. You've had a hard time. You've my vote, anyway. That Paisley man ...
The reaction in the Housing Executive (or public) estate, which is a mixed estate, was more varied. One woman said: be voting for you anyway. But there's only one other house in this road you'd need to bother going to.
But she was wrong. To the obvious delight of David Trimble and his agent, Sam Gardiner, a woman a few doors down said: "I'm a Catholic. I am not a nationalist, not a republican. What can your party do for me?"
David Trimble assured her he had sought to attract "Ulster Catholics" to the party.
But Brid Rogers, the SDLP candidate, feels such voters would be very rare. Indeed, she says she has got support from some Protestants, especially women, who were appalled by Drumcree.
Her articulate and very vocal outrage as the RUC forced the Orange march down the Garvaghy Road, which was widely broadcast on television, has heightened her already considerable political profile.
Yet, inexplicably, the SDLP has not sought to field her in a winnable seat. While she lives in Upper Bann, other parties, like Sinn Fein, have fielded candidates from outside the constituency and in West Tyrone, for example, with a large nationalist majority, the SDLP is fielding a relatively unknown candidate.
So, because Upper Bann is not seen as winnable by the party, its resources are concentrated in other constituencies and Brid Rogers writes her own leaflets, brings them to the printer herself, and organises postal votes, as well as trying to canvass.
Her best hope is to increase her vote. "There is a lot of disillusionment among people who voted Sinn Fein the last-time as a vote for peace," she said.
Whether this is true or not, the Sinn Fein candidate in this constituency, Bernadette O'Hagan, is the wife of veteran republican J.B. O'Hagan. She lived for many years in Co Monaghan, so does not have the kind of roots Sinn Fein candidates with a background in years of community work have. Her support will come from the core republican vote in the constituency.
The housing estates of the Craigavon conurbation are pits of social deprivation, riven with poverty and apathy. The Catholic estates are natural Sinn Fein territory. Yet Brid Rogers said she had got a good response there.
So, undoubtedly, has the DUP in the Protestant estates of Portadown. The DUP vote has two elements - among the more deprived urban dwellers, and the evangelical Protestants of rural Northern Ireland, whose presence is everywhere evident. "Where is your Bible?" demand the small notices nailed to lamp-posts around the constituency.
If the forum result was repeated, when the DUP took over 15 per cent of the vote (almost a third of the unionist vote), if the nationalist vote came out in massive force, and if the Sinn Fein voters abandoned their party for the better known nationalist candidate, then Brid Rogers is in with a chance. But none of these are likely to happen, so David Trimble's seat looks very sale indeed.