THE central message of Mr Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign for the Israeli prime ministership has been simple and straightforward vote for him, and Israel will enjoy both peace and security. Under Mr Shimon Peres, it has neither.
For Mr Netanyahu, therefore, incidents such as the one in the West Bank yesterday, in which Palestinian gunmen shot dead a Jewish student and badly injured another outside the settlement of Beit-El, are proof of the malaise, proof of the tragic consequences of handing over too much West, Bank control to Mr Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority.
It is precisely murderous incidents such as yesterday's that have brought Mr Netanyahu, leader of the opposition Likud, neck and neck with the Prime Minister, Mr Peres, in opinion polls a head of elections on May 29th. Six months ago, in the wake of Mr Yitzhak Rabin's assassination, Mr Peres enjoyed a 30 per cent lead over his Likud rival; four suicide bombings by extremists in late February and early March wiped out that advantage. More attacks such as yesterday's, and Mr Netanyahu will be a shooin.
While Mr Peres's Labour Party no longer rules out the eventual establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Mr Netanyahu insists he would limit Palestinian self rule to its current autonomous status, would postpone the scheduled Israeli army withdrawal from Hebron, would try to avoid face to face negotiations with Mr Arafat, would restart government funding for Jewish settlement expansion and, crucially, would give the Israeli army freedom of action" in the territories to improve security.
As many Israelis share Labour's assessment that such policies - along with his pledge to retain Israeli control over the Golan Heights - would inevitably spell the collapse of the peace process, the floating voters who could decide this election will probably be swayed by the overall mood as polling day approaches.
If yesterday's shooting marks the start of a new campaign of anti Israeli violence by Palestinian Islamic extremists, that mood will win few last minute converts to Mr Peres's idyllic vision of a new era of peace and stability.
That Mr Netanyahu's chances of success depend largely on the activities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad is a mark of his somewhat surprising failure to undermine Mr Peres's candidacy by himself. Early in the campaign, it had been assumed that Israel's switch to a system of direct elections for the prime minister would work to the benefit of Mr Netanyahu.
Yet, in presenting his party's political broadcasts, he has come across as somehow artificial, and straining too hard to convey an image at once caring and forceful.
He has not been helped, either, by the Likud's failure until a few days ago to put together even the guidelines for a political platform, or by infighting in party ranks. Some Likud hardliners are adamant that Israel must send its troops back into cities where Mr Arafat now maintains control, that it should never negotiate with Mr Arafat, and they have attacked Mr Netanyahu for his softer line.
His personal life has also become a campaign issue, with Lab our frequently reminding voters that he is on his third wife, and that he has publicly admitted cheating on her. Much play, too, is being made of Mr Netanyahu's lack of political experience - limited to a successful stint as Israel's ambassador to the United Nations and a less happy period as a deputy minister. When it comes to running Israel, Labour posters assert, Mr Netanyahu just "isn't up to it".
Isn't he? We may be about to find out.