Aidan O'Hogan - Hamilton Osborne King

I think that the residential market is going to face two very challenging years, 2002 and 2003 - that is, challenging relative to the heady years of 1998, 1999, 2000. In terms of volume of transactions, in the new homes market, the number of starts in the greater Dublin area could be down by as much as 40 per cent over the next 18 months. It will slow down very dramatically, and demand is not going to change that much. Demand is already down by about 50 per cent in new homes, the first-time buyers are still there, but there has been a big reduction in other buyers, those who were making a lifestyle decision to move. Well located and realsitically priced new developments are selling well and will continue to do so next year, particularly as supply will be down and demand at first-time buyer level will be high.

Investors need to be encouraged back into the market, to boost activity, and to address the astronomical rents being charged,

In the secondhand market, again, the volume will be down by at least 35 per cent from 2000 levels. There is just not going to be enough people buying. People putting their homes on the market will be those who need to move for more accommodation, or for a job. Otherwise there will be an element of people not moving unless they have, to or unless you win the Lotto or your granny leaves you £200,000 (€253,947).

In the secondhand market most of the decline in value has already happened. Values are 15 to 20 per cent down from the peak of 2000. I don't think there is going to be a dramatic further decline.

Two years from now we will see the first signs of significant uplift in the new homes market. Late next year, the lack of starts, combined with economic forces will lift prices, but not anything like the historic growth. It will be more like a couple of per cent growth.

The secondhand market will show signs of increases in 2004. The worldwide economy will show signs of recovery in the last quarter of 2003, and if you look at what happens historically, you get peaks and troughs for about six months as people build up confidence. New homes will recover first, you will get saleability increasing in the last quarter of 2002, early 2003.

Joe Cosgrave - Cosgrave Developments

First-time buyers have now a great opportunity to achieve their goal. For the first time in years there is a great choice of properties on the market in several different locations and prices have stabilised. People must make up their own minds as to when is the best time to buy but it is worth bearing in mind that to sit on the fence for, say, 12 months, will cost them around £10,000 (€12,697) in lost rent on a typical two-bedroom apartment. They also risk missing out altogether on home ownership because if most buyers stall, when the market picks up they could be caught in the rush.

It is sad to witness the present decline in construction activity and urban renewal in the city centre at a time when there is such a need for new homes for sale or rental. This decline could be reversed in Dublin or in the country by a number of wise moves by the Government which would not only significantly boost state revenues in the form of various taxes, but which would also be of benefit to first-time buyers and tenants.

These should include the allowability of interest relief for residential investments and reducing stamp duty rates for secondhand property, thus creating a freer market between secondhand and new homes.

The next two years will see prices rising in line with building and labour costs. Whether supply continues to fall sharply and unemployment levels in the industry deteriorate depends on the substance and strength of the corrective measure and initiatives to be taken by the Government in response to current market conditions and needs.

Ken MacDonald - Hooke & MacDonald

I would liken the Dublin housing market to the state of Irish rugby after our recent defeat by Scotland. Panic ruled the day with the media and "experts" predicting gloom and doom. Well, you don't become a bad team over night, as Wales, England and Samoa found out, and perhaps the All Blacks this Saturday! It took a bit of corrective action to get back to winning ways. But the fundamentals were always right.

The housing market is no different. It has received a setback recently but nothing like what some economists or other "experts" would have you believe. The reality is that first -time buyers have never had such an opportunity to achieve home ownership at such affordable levels, there is an excellent choice of properties to choose from, interest rates are at record low levels, and significant employment creation is still occurring.

The necessary corrective action for the market can now be taken by the Government in the knowledge that price moderation has been restored to the market for homebuyers, but conscious of the fact that supply to the rental market has been stifled, causing rents to rise to painful levels for hundreds of thousands of tenants. The time is ripe to implement the recommendations of the Commission on Private Rented Accommodation by treating rentals as a business and allowing business expenses, including interest, in the normal way.

Property values over the next two years will rise by an average of 6 per cent per year. Prospective homebuyers would be well advised to get out there now and buy rather than wasting money on rent; if they listen to alarmist advice they will miss their opportunity.

Noel Dempsey - Minister for the Environment and Local Government

This is an excellent time for people to get into the housing market. Prices at the lower end of the market, so important to most first-time buyers, have stabilised. Interest rates are at historically low levels.

When the Government came to office in mid 1997, we were faced with rapidly increasing house prices and demand for housing was outstripping supply. Particularly affected were first-time buyers who were finding themselves driven from the market by people who had entered it with a view to making a quick profit. We therefore set out to improve access to house purchase for first -time buyers - the key to our strategy was expanding housing output to match demand.

It is clear from data on house completions, house prices, new house grant applications and the share of the market now enjoyed by first-time buyers, that these Government interventions have been effective. The percentage of first-time buyers in the market has increased from 38 per cent in the first six months of last year to 44 per cent for the same period this year.

In a nutshell, the current situation is a far cry from the 1998 scenario of first-time buyers squeezed from the market and annual house price increases of about 40 per cent.

Clair Cullinan - Sherry FitzGerald

We are coming out of the turmoil of the late 1990s, and going into a far more settled market. We had the heady days of people feeling that they had to buy, because if they didn't, the prices would go up the following week. For the last six months, however, people have been thinking, if I don't buy now, it will be cheaper next week. Now we are moving into a more settled phase where people will move because it suits them.

We are seeing more realistic pricing and it seems to be working. The new stock that is coming on our books is selling faster than the old stock. Going into the new year, expectation levels are down on both the vendors' and the purchasers' sides. With interest rates at an all time low and high inflation in rents, if I was a first-time buyer, I would be buying. Most people want to buy a home that becomes a good investment, but you can't bank on that in the short term. It worked in the last few years, but it was never the case before that, that property would show such huge returns in such a short time. People should be looking at property as a medium term investment. If we see any property inflation over the next 18 months it will be moderate , but the fundamentals of the market are still strong.

Paul Murgatroyd - Douglas Newman Good.

P and demand are dependent on consumer confidence. There has been a sharp rise in uncertainty, and expectations that prices will drop further. I feel that as confidence is slowly rebuilt next year, this will feed through to the market, and demand will show signs of recovery, but it will take time.

What we must be careful to avoid over the next two years is the possibility of returning to sharply rising prices because of pent-up demand. The risk of that may be very minimal, but looking forward, we want to be careful not to create a bubble.

There will be pent-up demand of people waiting to buy over the next six or eight months; if they suddenly are fearful of missing the boat, and come on to the market en masse, you have a return to excess demand, coupled with the slowing of output of new homes, especially among first-time buyers, of whom there seem to be plenty. A low stable interest rate environment, economic growth and low unemployment go a long way to underpinning a stable property market, and in turn allow people to be feel confident and secure about their financial situation. We currently have all three of those conditions, the key will be maintaining them for the next two years.

Harry Lorton - Irish Permanent

One of the key features of the Irish housing market over the last 12 months has been how price movements have varied very significantly in different sectors of the market. Prices at the upper end (over £300,000,/€380,921) have fallen over the course of the year so far - and this has tended to set the headlines for the whole market.

But this is misleading - as many first-time buyers will tell you - as prices in this sector have tended to continue to rise during the year. Overall the market remains robust.

The trend - of different price experiences in different sectors - is likely to remain for some time. There's little doubt that at the upper end of the market prices will continue to come under pressure and further falls in prices (and delays in completing sales) are likely. However, it's impossible to speculate how significant those falls may be. And for anyone putting off buying a house in the hope of further falls, it's a potentially risky gamble to take.

The situation is quite different for first -time buyers. This segment has experienced reasonable growth in prices over the past 12 months due to strong demand coupled with low interest rates and there's no reason to expect that this won't continue for the next few years.

The bottom line is that we continue to experience a deficit in the number of new homes for first time buyers compared to demand. That is likely to mean that prices for this segment will perform more strongly that those at the upper end of the market over the next year or so.