NOW that the date for the all party talks has been fixed, there wills be increasing attention on the elective process as the door through which the parties will have to pass.
On the face of it, the election is a victory for UUP leader David Trimble. He has been pushing it doggedly since his own election last September, against strong opposition from the SDLP and Sinn Fein. They saw it as a way of stalling all party talks. Now John Hume of the SDLP and the Rev Ian Paisley of the DUP have formed an unprecedented informal alliance to turn the election proposal to their advantage.
The final word on the election process will rest with the British Prime Minister, Mr John Major, after he has considered the various competing proposals. The Government here will have a consultative role.
By mid March the British government will start putting through the necessary legislation. Here is an outline of the favoured ideas of the political parties.
UUP
THIS is the only party to have spelled out in detail what it wants. In a document published last week entitled Democratic Imperative the UUP called for a 90 member peace convention. The members would be elected from 18 new constituencies. Each would be a five seater and the poll would be by proportional representation (PR) with single transferable vote, exactly like the one here in the Republic.
UUP members including John Taylor have been claiming that this will favour smaller parties such as the loyalist UDP and the PUP, Democratic Left and the Workers Party. But the quota for a seat will be 16.7 per cent and likely to be out of reach of these parties even where most strongly concentrated.
The list system favoured by the DUP and the "electorally indexed" system of the SDLP would both be better for the smaller parties. Under those systems, a vote as low as 2 per cent over the whole of Northern Ireland treated as one constituency would guarantee a seat.
SDLP
HE Trimble proposal for a seat assembly, later to be called a body and a peace convention, was strongly opposed by both the SDLP and Sinn Fein. They claimed it would delay all party talks and give the two unionist parties a built in majority on old Stormont lines.
The SDLP also sees such a body as a way for the UUP and DUP to avoid engaging in full three strand talks.
Mark Durkan, SDLP general secretary, arguing in a radio debate against the UUP proposal, suggested as a compromise that participation in future all party talks could be "electorally indexed". This is sometimes confused with a "list system" of elections on the model of the Netherlands or Israel and favoured by the DUP, but it is something quite different.
Under a list system with Northern Ireland as one constituency with, say, 100 seats, each party would present a list of candidates and the parties would receive seats in proportion to their total vote. The party lists would not be on the ballot paper but would have been published.
Thus, if a party won 25 per cent of the vote it would get 25 seats and they would go to the first 25 candidates on the party list. A small party which got only two per cent would still get two seats.
"Electorally indexed", according to Mr Durkan, means that people would vote for the parties to be represented at the negotiating table but there would be no list of candidates and no body or convention. If the SDLP won 30 per cent of the votes, it would be entitled to roughly one third of the seats at the talks table.
Special provision could be made for parties which won only a very small percentage to ensure their presence at the table.
The Participation in the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation was based on the electoral strength of the parties, so it provides a rough model of what the SDLP has in mind.
Political scientist Michael Laver says there is no known precedent for the SDLP proposal, which is for an election without candidates. But it is what happens after the election which is the most intriguing aspect.
The size of the negotiating body would have to be known. Then the parties would have to decide who was going to fill their places at the table.
This could be done in rotating fashion, so that when particular subjects were being discussed, different participants could be present. This" flexibility would help small parties.
DUP
WHILE there is a media assumption that the DUP and the SDLP have outwitted the UUP by throwing their combined weight behind a list system, this is not yet the case.
It is true that they both favour treating all of Northern Ireland as one constituency, as in European elections. On those occasions, the DUP and SDLP fare better than the UUP, even though it is the largest party.
The accompanying table shows how the DUP and UUP votes swing greatly between European elections and general and district elections. The SDLP vote is less volatile, as is Sinn Fein's.
But the resemblance is tenuous. In the Euro elections the North is treated as a three seat constituency. The system was deliberately designed to give the two unionist parties and the SDLP a seat each.
In the four elections since 1979, the DUP and the SDLP have run their high profile party leaders and finished ahead of the UUP candidates John Taylor and Jim Nicholson.
In the list system now favoured by the DUP and small parties - but strongly opposed by the UUP and Alliance - the North would be a single constituency and each party would have to publish the names of its candidates.
But the election would be less of a beauty contest than the Euro poll, when there is only one face on each party poster.
The results under the list system could, therefore, be closer to those in general elections, and so more favourable to the UUP. But for the DUP it is still worthwhile to support the list system in the hope of gaining a premium.
Ian Paisley said yesterday he would favour an elected body of about 50 members. In that case a small party would need to get 2 per cent to win one seat.
On the basis of the 1992 general election results, this would require about 16,000 votes.
The deputy leader, Peter Robinson, says. There is more agreement between the DUP and SDLP position on a list system for the election than on what people will be elected to." But he seemed puzzled by the Mark Durkan scheme under which no candidates would actually be elected.
Mr Robinson said that in discussions a year ago about an elected body for Northern Ireland - a "parliament in embryo" - the SDLP had proposed the list system to eliminate rivalry between the nationalist parties in a constituency such as Mid Ulster. The DUP said it could accept this system.
Mr Robinson said the list system would ensure that small parties such as the loyalist groups, the Ulster Conservatives, the Workers Party and Democratic Left would be represented.
SINN FEIN
THE party sees elections as unnecessary and as delaying all party talks. But it is likely to participate in whatever model emerges.
A list system would produce much better results for Sinn Fein than the five seater constituency model of the UUP.
On the basis of the 1992 general election results, Sinn Fein would have a quota in only four constituencies. But under the list system it would win 10 per cent of all seats.
ALLIANCE
ALLIANCE favours the UUP proposal for a 90 seat body elected from 18 five seater constituencies by PR and the single transferable vote.
The list system is seen as highly divisive and pick your tribe. The list system would also slow down the process as it would require new legislation.
Alliance also argues that the loyalist parties would get seats under the constituency system. The PUP could get two seats for David Ervine and Hugh Smith in East and North Belfast, with the help of transfers, while Gary McMichael of the UDP could get a seat in Lagan Valley, it claims.
Alliance reckons it could itself get eight to 11 seats. But it is prepared to discuss the list system.
Overall, then, there would be more parties favouring a list system than the UUP constituency system. Mr Major has promised to select the system which is "broadly acceptable" to the political parties.
He insists he has not done a "deal" with the DUP, but it seems to be well placed to get its scheme adopted.
Incidentally, Mr Robinson says Mr Major "does not give a toss" what system is chosen.
A variant of the straight list system is the German "personalised" PR.
Electors have two votes. The first goes to a candidate in their constituency who is elected on a first past the post basis. The second vote goes to a party list of candidates.
The results from both votes are then combined to ensure that the composition of the Bundestag reflects the distribution of the votes for the national lists.
The advantage is that people can vote for candidates they know in their constituencies, as well as for a national list of candidates. The disadvantage for Northern Ireland would be its initial complexity, and the risk of confusing voters in what may be a once off election to get all party talks going.
