Establishing air supremacy would be NATO's first aim

There could be up to 10 NATO options if it decides to take action in Kosovo. Four of them - electronic warfare, a "no-fly zone", a "no entry zone" for heavy weapons, and the "natural choice" air strikes - have been specified.

Electronic warfare would be essential to all options. It would be used to confuse the air defence radar, including the electronics of any aircraft unwise enough to try intercepting NATO planes. The air defence ground installations could then be hit by air strikes.

Establishing air superiority, or supremacy, would be the preliminary aim for all options. The "no-fly zone" option is perfectly feasible, but there is little Serbian air activity over Kosovo. Again it would happen automatically if NATO used force.

The "no-entry zone" for heavy weapons is interesting. On the move, towed or self-propelled artillery and tanks on transporters are vulnerable to air attack. Transporters deliver tanks rapidly, with full tanks and undamaged tracks, to the battle sites. And night movement is not the answer it once was. Aircraft can "see" vehicles in the dark and under camouflage, whether stationary or moving.

Tanks moving on their own tracks may be hard to hit, depending on the cover available, the accompanying anti-aircraft weapons and the state of tank-crew training. However, as the Gulf War showed, "tank-busting" helicopters can be very effective.

Air strikes, the "natural option", will be boosted by cruise missiles, probably ship-launched Tomahawks. These have improved in range and accuracy since they first appeared on the TV screen in the Gulf War. But they can still go off course and cause "collateral damage" i.e. can kill innocent people.

Essentially, when working well, cruise missiles concentrate heavy firepower on targets with no risk to the launchers. A possible use of the missile will be against barracks or bases for Serb troops.

Bridges, too, can be hit, but this will burden the people of Kosovo with long-term reconstruction problems which NATO may wish to minimise.

When I was in Croatia last week, news and pictures of withdrawing tanks and troops appeared in Saturday's newspapers. And this could be a problem for NATO planners.

Are withdrawing tanks and troops going to be attacked? By not doing so it would leave them free to fight another day. And it has been made clear that NATO action will not be confined to Kosovo. There is no way NATO can avoid some civilian damage, but one hopes it will be kept to a minimum.

There are about 30,000 police in Kosovo, including 3,000-4,000 in special anti-terrorist units armed with Kalashnikov automatic assault rifles and Heckler and Koch rifles and the usual east European types of machine gun, bazooka and mortar. They have also armoured personnel carriers with machine guns.

There are about 12,000 army troops in Kosovo. There is a formation at Pristina (the capital) and two special anti-terrorist brigades. "Hired armed forces" - professionals who have previously fought as mercenaries on the Serb side - are also present. Poorly disciplined, unshaven men can also be seen. They are said to belong to the notorious Arkan militia.

The question arises of whether the atrocities committed by all sides since the break-up of Yugoslavia stem from orders issued by generals and politicians who can be tried. Or do the atrocities result from bad discipline and simple hatreds, a combination of all three, or a long period of neglect of essentials?

History shows that armies are subject to inner decay. They can look fine for special occasions. But much can be ramshackle behind the facade unless standards are constantly maintained. This takes energy and determination.

The Yugoslav army has old T-34/85 tanks plus more modern T-55 and T-84 ones. There is also a wide range of artillery, much of it modified Warsaw Pact types. It is notable that the Yugoslavs have improved many Warsaw Pact weapons, especially mines.

It is claimed that military and anti-terrorist units have been withdrawn to bases. This is a familiar old ploy to gain time and let NATO relax before the next set of attacks.

The air force has about 240 combat aircraft and 56 armed helicopters. The significant planes are 64 Russian MiG-21s of various marques, plus 15 MiG-29s. The latter are very capable aircraft. However, NATO has flown former East German ones in many hours of mock combat against its own aircraft.

There will be hundreds of NATO aircraft, including many specialised early-warning and electronic warfare types. As before, the US will not put in ground troops.

The Yugoslav President, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, met and turned down proposals from the US envoy, Mr Richard Holbrooke, which may well prove unwise. However, can we believe NATO will get its act together?

If Russia vetoes a Security Council resolution and NATO goes ahead, there will be a US call for a similar attack on Iraq. The vista becomes appalling.