We are gradually moving in to that time of the year when the volume of company news begins to taper off. Therefore, it is a good time to take stock of some of the macro trends and themes that are currently impacting on stock markets.

Official interest rate policy is currently very much to the forefront of investors' minds and is the focus of attention of financial analysts in all the major economic blocs.

In Britain, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has now left rates unchanged at 6 per cent for four consecutive meetings. This has prompted some to call the current level of rates as the top of the current cycle. However, the minutes of the June MPC meeting showed a six-three split in voting, indicating that some of the members of the committee favoured a rise in rates.

The recovery in the sterling exchange rate would seem to have been a key determinant of the MPC's decision-making and its recent recovery has clearly been a key factor in staying the hand of the MPC as regards further rate rises.

As long as sterling remains steady it is likely that the current base rate level of 6 per cent will turn out to be the top of the current cycle.

In the US, expectations of further interest rate rises have eased somewhat after the May hike in Fed Funds of half a percentage point. Since then, economic data releases have pointed to some weakening in the pace of economic growth.

A number of Fed governors have referred to this apparent slowdown, suggesting that any further rises in US interest rates have been deferred for the time being.

If the US economy continues to slow over the summer months then we could well be close to the peak in US interest rates. However, in recent years there have been several occasions when the signals pointing to a slowdown turned out to be false dawns.

Despite this caveat the balance of probability suggests that any further rises in US short-term interest rates could well be limited to no more than 0.5 per cent in aggregate.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised the markets by raising its key rate by half a percentage point to 4.25 per cent compared with expectations of a rise of a quarter point. A key factor in this more hawkish rise is undoubtedly the acceleration in the pace of monetary growth in the euro zone.

The ECB's reference level for M3 growth is 4.5 per cent but the rate of monetary expansion has accelerated to 6.5 per cent in recent months. A further rise in European interest rates is unlikely for several months as the ECB's style aims to change rates infrequently.

Nevertheless, the euro-zone economy is now growing quite smartly and the current phase of modestly rising interest rates could well last for the next 12-18 months.

Finally, Japan, which has had almost zero interest rates for a prolonged period, is seeing the first official signals that rates may rise.

The recently re-elected government of Mr Yoshiro Mori has been giving tentative signals that Japanese interest rates may be pushed higher. However, Japanese bond yields and interest rates are only a fraction of European and American yields and, even if they begin to rise soon, they are likely to remain at very low levels for several years yet.

Against this background of rising interest rates, global stock markets have broadly moved sideways over the past six to nine months. Rises in share prices have been followed by falls and the net result is that year-to-date, most stock market indices have declined or have just eked out modest gains.

This directionless pattern of trading seems likely to persist through the summer months. By autumn the interest rate picture should become clearer.

If the economic data at that time show that the US economy is achieving a soft landing, stock markets should receive a boost in the expectation of lower interest rates. On the other hand, if growth and inflationary pressures remain strong, autumn could witness another round of interest rate increases that would almost certainly lead to further weakness in share prices.