Majority of public pessimistic about jobs

A majority of the public believes that employment levels and the overall health of the economy are set to worsen over the next year, according to a new survey.

A new Irish Times/TNS mrbi consumer confidence survey shows 58 per cent of respondents expect employment levels and overall economic conditions to worsen.

Pointing to a markedly negative overall picture, just 11 per cent expect an improvement, while 29 per cent believe conditions will remain the same, while 2 per cent "don't know" or did not express an opinion.

The survey - known as the "Pulse" monitor - is designed to provide a regular and reliable measure of consumer confidence. It will be undertaken every month and the initial results are based on 2,000 respondents to a telephone survey.

The question asked was: "Thinking about the year ahead, do you think employment levels and the Irish economy in general are set to improve, weaken or remain the same?"

The latest results are for data collected between May 29th and June 19th. They show a slight worsening of the position from the previous survey, when 55 per cent of respondents expected conditions to weaken, with 11 per cent anticipating an improvement and 31 per cent stating no change. That survey featured data collected between April 29th and May 22nd.

The latest survey, showing a generally negative perception of the economic outlook, is in line with other business and consumer survey data.

The IIB/ESRI consumer survey, for example, showed 60 per cent of respondents in June believing conditions would worsen over the next year.

Despite this, however, consumer spending continues to remain stable, indicating that the economy continues to perform reasonably well against a weak international backdrop.

The latest retail sales figures showed the volume of spending in April was 3.2 per cent ahead of the same month last year, although details of the figures suggest that spending has remained broadly flat in recent months. Consumers also continue to borrow to buy houses, the latest figures show an annual rise of more than 20 per cent in mortgage lending. Commenting on the survey results, Mr Ian McShane of TNS mrbi said: "What is fascinating to observe is how consumers seem to be setting a distance between their own financial situation and what they clearly see as an economy spluttering to a halt.

"They accept that the sun has set on the heady days of the Celtic Tiger, but the partying goes on nonetheless."

Consumers look set to continue spending "until evidence of the slowdown moves closer to home, perhaps in the form of higher taxation or higher unemployment," he said. So far unemployment has only risen slowly, but some forecasters expect it to rise steadily over coming months. This is likely to be a central factor in whether the negative perceptions expressed in the survey translate into a fall-off in spending and borrowing.

The breakdown of the survey figures shows pessimism about the outlook is fairly evenly spread across different regions and between people of different social groupings.

One notable variation, however, is that young people are less gloomy, with the percentage expecting conditions to worsen coming in below 50 per cent for those aged 15-20. The percentage of these younger groups expecting a pick-up varied from 21 per cent for 15-year-olds to 15 per cent for 18- to 19-year olds.

The most pessimistic age group was 35- to 44-year-olds, of which 69 per cent expected conditions to weaken. This trend is also reflected in a general pessimism of people defined as "chief income earners", of whom 62 per cent are negative about the outlook with just 8 per cent positive. Looking at employment status - as shown in the table - the survey backs the perception that those "in work" are more pessimistic, perhaps because many see direct evidence of the downturn in their workplaces.

Men (59 per cent expecting the economy to weaken) are slightly more pessimistic than women (56 per cent).

PhoneBus methodology

The information presented in this report was obtained as part of TNS mrbi's PhoneBus survey in the Republic of Ireland.

Sample structure:

The survey was based on a representative sample of adults, i.e. males and females aged 15 or over. Respondents are selected for interview through random digit dialling. Telephone numbers are computer-generated at random and then screened for business numbers, faxes, modems and disconnected numbers. This method of respondent selection ensures that ex-directory households are as likely to be selected for interview as listed households.

Each survey has targets that must be met in relation to sex, age, social class and region. Quota controls are imposed for region, by age within sex and social class within sex.

Supervision of the interview procedure is carried out throughout the fieldwork period. These controls ensure that the final sample reflects the profile of the national population aged 15 and over.