Chimps may shed light on euro-dollar link

Once again the newspapers have reported on the improving communication skills of chimpanzees. Apparently two chimps, Panbanisha and her son Nyota, can now communicate with people using picture icons to say things like "I want a cup of coffee".

Who on earth offered the chimps cups of coffee in the first place? I was under the impression that the health police have decided that coffee is bad for you. Dealers drink it by the gallon and are not all that highly rated in the communications department - most are shaky from caffeine overdoses by four o'clock and goodness knows how many trades have been executed by a mistaken jab at the keyboard by a twitchy finger.

Panbanisha has a vocabulary of 3,000 words which is good for a trader - surely it's only a matter of time before she starts dealing on the foreign exchange markets.

I'd be interested in her views on the dollar/euro given its roller-coaster ride of the last week or so. From the currency that you couldn't give away with a large bunch of bananas and a promise of a visit to the new parliament building in Strasbourg, it became the must-have currency of choice for global investors.

The ECB guys must be wiping the sweat from their collective brows and hoping that the resurgence of the currency lasts as long as its decline. The sudden surge of the euro was a classic short-squeeze where those who were convinced that the currency would hit parity with the dollar had opened some sizeable positions. When the euro began its sudden upward surge they had no choice but to pile in and cover those positions. I'm sure all those who despise the speculators who make money when they get it right will sympathise profusely when they get it wrong . . .

Half of the forecasters are going to get it wrong as far as the Fed's interest rate decision at the next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting is concerned.

Following his Humphrey Hawkins testimony, opinions are divided on whether or not Alan Greenspan wants to hike rates. The differing views arise despite some pretty strong comments from him about the Fed having to act "promptly and forcefully" if they want to sustain the current expansion. As far as the Fed is concerned this prompt and forceful action would take place if the pace of cost and price increases picks up.

Actually, the Fed is concentrating quite a lot on the labour force and wage increases. Nine years of expansion have happened because, so far, wage increases have been low which has helped keep business competitive.

However, labour shortages are appearing in the US market and even fast-food joints are embracing the entrepreneurial culture and offering people signing on fees of a hundred dollars or more. The conflicting views on the Fed's potential actions will keep markets edgy in what is traditionally one of the quieter months of the year.

In fact, between the euro and the dollar, there's quite enough to keep those of us who haven't managed to escape to the beach yet pinned to our desks.

While the financial markets ponder about Alan Greenspan's state of mind, it was good to see the positive press coverage of the appointment of Carly Fiorina as president and CEO of Hewlett-Packard.

I noticed from the CV blurb on Fiorina that she received her bachelor's degree in medieval history and philosophy from Stanford University. I bet she never thought when she was skulking around the bones of the Black Death that she'd one day be at the cutting edge of modern technology.

I'm intrigued to know why she did medieval history and what then turned her towards business. She obtained a master's degree in business administration from the University of Maryland and a master of science degree from MIT's Sloan School.

To prove that when you're a busy person you become even busier, Fiorina has also been recently elected to the US China Board of Trade.

This might be an area in which she has to tread softly in her Manolo Blahniks. S&P recently downgraded China to a BBB sovereign credit. The banking system is a mess, with massive asset quality problems and the major banks are now rated at BB+, which is sub-investment grade.

Although S&P has affirmed Hong Kong's single-A rating, any potential undermining of Hong Kong's autonomy would leave the ratings vulnerable to a downgrade of three notches.

Further economic problems in China will, in any event, impact the Hong Kong economy too. Which is why the Hang Seng has been having a rocky time lately.

The problem in China is that growth (7.6 per cent for first-half 1999, and slower than expected) has been driven by massive government expenditure rather than by consumer demand.

Prices are falling and consumers aren't spending. Exports have fallen sharply and China's trade surplus is down by 64.5 per cent for the first half of the year - the effects of not devaluing the currency at the same time as the rest of Asia are now being felt. The possibility of devaluation in China is being discussed more openly these days.

Additionally, the Chinese authorities have dismissed rumours that they intend to impose a tax on interest income from bank deposits in order to stop people saving and boost consumer spending. Reports say that the State Council has approved a 20 per cent tax on deposits from October 1st.

It might want to talk to our own authorities about the implications of slapping taxes on bank deposits.

Anyway, none of it is good news for the Western businesses which flocked to invest in China over the past few years, although I'm sure they've managed to eke out enough profit to make the foray worthwhile.

I wonder, though, in a country where most people get around by bike, how McDonalds is faring. I suppose the drive-thru isn't a big concept in China, but will it be possible for them to bikethru?

I ask the question because my brother-in-law tried to do that in his local (southside) Macs recently. Along with the nephew strapped to the back of the bike and chanting the McDonalds mantra, he cycled up to the window of the drive-thru.

There were no cars around at the time. The drive-thru had been driven thru. But the assistant refused to serve him on the basis that he wasn't in a car. She suggested that he might like to go into the restaurant and order instead.

Not really, he thought. That would have meant unstrapping the nephew, locking the bike and queuing.

There was a terse debate on the fact that the (empty) drive-thru catered only for motorised traffic.

In these eco-friendly times, that's surely a little harsh. Eventually (and without Michael Douglas tactics) he prevailed. But he was informed that it was policy to serve only motorised vehicles.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers