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Attempts by campaigners to have Donald Trump excluded from the ballot for next year’s presidential election had up until now received relatively little attention and were seen as a long shot.
Court actions in some states to have him disqualified over his attempts to hold on to power after losing to Joe Biden in 2020 had been unsuccessful.
But the ruling by the Colorado supreme court on Tuesday heralds a potential political earthquake that, if upheld, could upend the 2024 election.
The court – whose members were all appointed by Democratic governors in the state – found by a 4-3 margin that provisions in the US constitution, introduced after the 1860s civil war to prevent those who aided the confederacy from holding federal office, applied to Donald Trump.
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The court’s conclusion was stunning: “President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president”, it found.
The court acknowledged it was entering uncharted territory with its decision, which could have huge practical, political and constitutional implications.
The ruling itself applies only to the primary election in the state of Colorado to determine who will run for the Republican Party in the 2024 election.
Trump will appeal the decision to the US supreme court in Washington. If it was to make similar findings, the entire presidential election campaign would be affected.
Trump is currently a mile ahead of all the other candidates for the Republican nomination and is unlikely to need to win Colorado.
However, if the ruling was upheld, there would be an avalanche of cases to have him removed from ballots all over the country for the election in November.
Trump already faces criminal prosecution in four separate cases across the US, two of them to do with attempts to overturn the 2020 election. But the decisions by prosecutors to charge the former president have done him no political damage.
Indeed the legal moves appear to have turbo-charged a campaign that seemed at a low ebb after the midterm elections in November 2022, when a number of candidates backed by Trump did not do well.
It remains to be seen how his supporters would react to any move to exclude Trump from next year’s election.
Republicans are already claiming that the Colorado court decision is unfair and that a judgment on Trump should be left to voters.
Biden and his Democratic Party have sought to portray Trump as a danger to American democracy and have warned about what a second term for him in the White House could mean.
Republicans counter that Democrats and judges they appointed are the real danger to democracy by trying to deny Americans the opportunity to vote for the candidate who is leading in the polls to be the next president.
The Colorado decision in all likelihood means the US supreme court in Washington will have yet another momentous ruling to make, and one that could have significant implications for Trump and the election.
Already it is likely to have to decide on whether actions taken by Trump as president are immune from any subsequent criminal prosecution and on the applicability of an obstruction charge used by prosecutors in relation to cases taken in light of the January 6th, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.
It is also to rule in another key case involving abortion that could see that issue dominate the headlines again next summer, just months before the election.
In the Colorado case, the supreme court in Washington will likely have to rule on what section 3 of the 14th amendment to the US constitution – which says that acts of insurrection can disqualify someone from office – means in the modern world. It could come down to determining whether it is meant to apply to people who are elected – and specifically the president as the most powerful elected official – as well as those appointed to positions.
How the court interprets a text from 1868 could have profound implications for the race to decide who will serve in the White House until 2028.
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