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Sweden joins Nato and changes the tectonics of European security

‘We will defend freedom together with the countries closest to us – both in terms of geography, culture and values’

Gunner Filip Notander on a combat boat taking part in a military exercise Nordic Response on Norway's northern coast after Sweden became a member of Nato

Derek Scally's face
Derek Scally in Berlin
Sun Mar 10 2024 - 15:09

When Sweden’s blue-and-yellow is hoisted on Monday as the 32nd flag outside Nato’s Brussels headquarters no one is likely to burst into song: the Nato anthem, adopted in 2018, is a strictly instrumental affair.

Not so in 1959 when, to mark Nato’s first decade, White Christmas crooner Bing Crosby lent his silky voice to a Cold War propaganda anthem recalling Europe’s bad old days, when “dark aggression spread”.

“Then Nato went on guard and free men ceased to yield,” he sang. “We live again in peace and strength behind the Nato shield.”

Today, two years after Sweden applied and started at times fraught accession talks with Turkey and Hungary, Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson has taken over from Crosby in praising the alliance – though not yet in song.

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“Today is a truly historic day,” he said on Thursday in Washington, after officially signing up Sweden. “We will defend freedom together with the countries closest to us – both in terms of geography, culture and values.”

He called it a “great but natural step” for Sweden to take behind its two centuries of non-aligned neutrality. There is a symmetry here: neutrality was adopted as a response to catastrophic wars in the 18th and 19th century, mostly against Russia. Once again Russia, with its invasion of Ukraine, has triggered another major shift in Swedish history. Within weeks of the war public opinion in Sweden swung rapidly in favour of Nato and, with neighbouring Finland already in since last year, it has stabilised at around two-thirds support.

On the streets of Stockholm, though, ambivalence is still palpable. “I have mixed feelings, and am a bit sad to be honest,” said Lisa Hjerten, a 58 year-old Stockholm woman.

Anders, a 72 year-old, said: “I find it good, it makes things more secure for my children and grandchildren.”

Sweden’s accession closes the last non-aligned gap on the map of the Baltic Sea and the latest Nato enlargement, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will do little to allay Moscow’s oft-cited encirclement anxiety.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken said that, with Sweden and Finland in Nato, there could be “no clearer example than today of the strategic debacle that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has become for Russia”.

Security analysts agree that the move – and the timing – changes the tectonics of European security.

“Northern Europe will no longer be seen as a flank area but will become Nato’s new front against Russia,” says Prof Håkan Edström of the Swedish Defence University. “The entire strategic landscape will be different, and we must keep up with the change.”

After lowering defence budgets and mothballing infrastructure in the last decades, Sweden is moving – and spending – fast to meet its Nato membership commitment to spend the equivalent of 2 per cent of its gross domestic on security and defence. Overall defence spending this year will be Kr 119 billion (€10.65bn), almost double its 2020 budget, and is expected to take Sweden across the 2 per cent threshold.

Swedish officials say major investment is also likely in support civilian infrastructure and national resilience, such as energy supply security and upgrade of roads and railways.

As well as geography and a surge in spending Sweden brings into Nato advanced arms companies, such as Saab, that make fighter jets, submarines, tanks – as well as the weapons systems to destroy them.

Saab CEO Michael Johansson has acknowledged in public the security benefits for Sweden are matched by financial benefits for his company of joining Nato’s “inner circle”.

While Mr Kristersson says he hopes ordinary Swedes notice Nato membership “as little as possible”, Sweden has already joined Nato member military exercises in its northern territories bordering Norway and Finland.

Swedish defence analysts say official Nato membership builds on already close ties dating back to the 1990s which has created a high level of compatibility and interoperability for the new Nato neighbours.

More visible change is likely through arrangements made last year with Washington in parallel to Nato membership: a bilateral defence co-operation agreement will see 17 Swedish bases make room for large numbers of US soldiers and marines.

This deal has attracted considerable criticism from Swedish pacifists, who now sound more resigned than angry on joining Nato. “We will survive,” said Pierre Schori, a former adviser to pacifist Swedish prime minister Olof Palme, “unless we get nuked.”

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