Try as the IRFU might to dilute the frequency or intensity of all-Irish provincial head-to-heads, there's simply no stopping them. And, though it's only three days old, there'll be few more competitive meetings all year than the Celtic League semi-final showdown between Munster and Ulster at an overflowing Thomond Park tonight. Gerry Thornley reports.
The turkeys having been dispensed with, January is the meat of the domestic season, and starting here the next three weeks will largely define the provinces' seasons.
Munster's only defeats this season were away to Ulster and Gloucester, so their supporters have been roused to ensure both return meetings are sell-outs. Those two games sandwich a return trip to Perpignan, and at the end of that series Munster could be in the final of one competition and the quarter-final of another, or out of both.
The same is true for Ulster, who follow this semi-final with a European trip to Cardiff and a home sell-out against Northampton.
The consequences must be a little scary. Seasons will flourish or finish in the next three weeks, and if that doesn't concentrate the minds - never mind Ulster out to avenge a semi-final defeat to Munster last year or the latter wanting to atone for the ensuing loss in the final to Leinster - then nothing will.
"We regard the Celtic League as a very important competition, as I said from day one before we kicked the first ball against Llanelli," commented the Munster coach Alan Gaffney. "This is the start of a hugely important three weeks for us and I don't think we could have asked for a tougher game. I think it's going to be a great contest."
Munster have lost the last three meetings with Ulster, though one was a friendly and all were at Ravenhill. Ulster, for their part, haven't won away to Munster in 10 years and, curiously, haven't played in Thomond Park since 1996. Munster squeezed home by 27-24 to complete an interpro grand slam, and Munster haven't lost in their Limerick citadel in over seven years, dating back to an interpro win by Leinster there in December 1995.
The carrot this provides and the uniqueness of tonight's occasion will act as a huge spur to Ulster, particularly as an estimated 2,000 of their supporters are expected to make the long trek down. They're not inclined to be church mice either.
Thomond Park has been oddly subdued this season, most notably for the Perpignan game, and will need to lively itself up. Assuming the few hundred terrace tickets returned from Cork yesterday are snapped up, and a capacity crowd of 12,500 is expected, it looks like it intends to.
On the face of it, Munster's form would appear to have held up better this season, given they've won 10 of their 12 matches, whereas Ulster have won eight out of 12. Both sides have been tough nuts to crack: Munster have conceded just 12 tries and Ulster 15, though Munster have been scoring far more freely, 50 tries at over four per game as against Ulster's haul of 21 at under two a game.
Yet this has to be attributed at least partially to the relative standard of opposition. Munster have scored 29 tries and 193 points in their last four outings at home to Caerphilly, Connacht and Viadana and the return meeting away to the Italians.
Munster, arguably, haven't had a really competitive game since beating Perpignan on October 25th and that assuredly isn't the ideal preparation for tonight.
In sharp contrast, Ulster have had to roll up their sleeves in accounting for Llanelli, Glasgow and Biarritz by a score, before losing bravely in Biarritz since then, and could be significantly more match-hardened than Munster, all the more so after a warm-up game over the holiday period.
Despite those three successive wins, Ulster retain a sense of grievance over the semi-final defeat in this competition last season. In both the subsequent end-of-season interpro, and when the sides met in Ravenhill last September in the Celtic League pool stages, the undeniable impression was that beating Munster mattered more to Ulster than vice versa as they turned the heat up to deservedly pull through.
Nevertheless, Alan Solomons wasn't kidding himself, his team or the public that the injury-ravaged visitors of that night constituted the real Munster. Nine of tonight's frontliners were missing that night, namely John Kelly, Anthony Horgan, Ronan O'Gara, Peter Stringer, Frankie Sheahan, John Hayes, Paul O'Connell, Alan Quinlan and Anthony Foley.
Then again, David Humphreys, Gary Longwell and Andy Ward (albeit an impact replacement for this one) weren't in the Ulster mix either. Even so, tonight's renewal is a far truer barometer of the progress Ulster have made in the last year or so.
Some of Ulster's best rugby has been when they've thrown it around away to Glasgow and Biarritz, and their best hope probably rests in the dry weather that is forecast, whereas Munster may have preferred a bit of wet.
The familiarity between the sides has tended to ensure stop-start affairs, and difficult to referee, though the appointment of Welsh referee Nigel Owen should help the game's flow more than Iain Ramage did in last season's semi-final. Best not to anticipate a classic, though it'll hardly be dull.
MUNSTER: J Staunton; J Kelly, M Mullins, J Holland, A Horgan; R O'Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, F Sheahan, J Hayes; P O'Connell, D O'Callaghan; J Williams (capt), A Quinlan, A Foley. Replacements: J Blaney, M Cahill, M O'Driscoll, M Galwey, E Halvey, Denis Leamy, M Prendergast, K Keane, M Lawlor.
ULSTER: B Cunningham; J Topping, S Stewart, A Larkin, S Coulter; D Humphreys (capt), N Doak; J Fitzpatrick, M Sexton, R Kempson, G Longwell, J Davidson, W Brosnihan, T McWhirter, N McMillan. Replacements: S Best, P Shields, M Blair, A Ward, K Campbell, J Cunningham, S Young.
Referee: Nigel Owen (Wales).
Overall (competitive only): Played 61. Munster 18 wins, 8 draws, Ulster 35 wins.
Last three seasons: 2002-3 - (CL) Ulster 26 Munster 17. 2001-2 - (CL s-f) Munster 15 Ulster 9, (Interpro) Ulster 23 Munster 18. 2000-1 (Interpros) Ulster 16 Munster 21, Munster 29 Ulster 21.
Celtic League formguide: Munster: W W W W L W W W. Ulster: W L L W W W W W.
CL Leading try scorers: Munster - Mossie Lawlor 6, Mike Mullins 4, Dominic Crotty 3. Ulster - Tyrone Howe 3.
CL Leading points scorers: Munster - Jeremy Staunton 63, Ronan O'Gara 54. Ulster - David Humphreys 67, Neil Doak 38.
Betting (Paddy Power): 2/7 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 11/4 Ulster. Handicap odds (= Ulster + 9pts) 10/11 Munster, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Ulster.
The winner of a tied Celtic League semi-final will be determined by the following criteria: a) first team to score ("golden point") during extra time that shall not exceed 10 minutes (five minutes each way); b) team which has scored most tries in regular time (80 minutes) of the tied semi-final; c) the away team.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: David Humphreys v Ronan O'Gara
BACKGROUND
Though every bit as enduring as any of the other more famed Irish rivalries, such as Ollie Campbell v Tony Ward, and though it provokes similar opinions, somehow the O'Gara-Humphreys debate hasn't generated anything like the same intensity or polarisation.
Perhaps it's because the two styles are closer, and also, as Eddie O'Sullivan has always maintained, because it's usually "nip and tuck between them" when it comes to choosing one over the other for the Irish number 10 jersey, which, more often than not, is simply a form selection at a given time.
Looking beyond them, though, the cupboard is also worryingly bare.
FORM
This time last year Humphreys was the resident Irish outhalf and playing the better rugby, and almost steered Ulster to an improbable win against Munster in the Celtic League semi-final when he began the end-of-game catch-up after landing three penalties from three despite having fed off scraps throughout. Now, though, it is O'Gara who is playing more games and better rugby.
Since Ireland's defeat in France last April, Humphreys has only started Ireland's matches against a New Zealand Divisional XV and Fiji, as well as eight games for Ulster this season, whereas O'Gara has started 19 competitive games, including seven of Ireland's last eight Test matches.
The 25-year-old appears to have found a new level of maturity and consistency, landing 10 from 10 in the autumn wins over Australia and Argentina, and has been on the losing side only once in 13 games this season, in which he has scored 189 points.
STYLES
At provincial level, O'Gara benefits from having Peter Stringer's silver salver service - the best of any Irish scrumhalf in years - and like all class players seems to have all the time in the world. He's also benefited from greater consistency in selection in recent years as well as the advent of professionalism and more successful provincial and Irish teams. And so he's a more rounded player at 25 than Humphreys was.
Arguably more adaptable to varying conditions, he has a masterful tactical kicking game - as evidenced in the win over Australia - and gives the impression he possesses a clearer head amid the maelstrom, whether by executing kicks to the corner or upping the tempo when attacking the gain line.
Humphreys, the pacier of the two, is more likely to come up with a game-breaking play. Brilliant at orchestrating catch-up rugby, witness his trademark little drop out to himself off the outside of his right boot and at attacking the blind side, while there's been few truer strikers of drop goals. Earned a grossly unfair reputation from his critics as having a somewhat flakey temperament, though he has consistently shown his big-game mentality for Oxford, London Irish, Ulster and an array of Irish sides.
And with his clean living lifestyle, the 31-year-old has a few years left in him yet if he fancies it.
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