Ruthless display should see off Scots

OPTIMISM IS high in the ranks of Irish supporters who have been gradually filling Princes Street – currently one long roadwork as Edinburgh builds a tramline from the city centre to the airport – and beyond. The travelling support will be swelled by Scottish-based ex-pats, for how else can one explain this being Murrayfield’s first sell-out of the season? Ireland, it would appear, are a bigger draw than the world champions, the world’s number one side and reigning Grand Slam/Six Nations champions, all of whom have come to town before them.

It’s easy to forget, of course, that rugby in Scotland is a poor second to football – this weekend also sees Edinburgh and Glasgow derbies – and that traditional sell-outs for championship games masks the difficulty which, say, clubs like Edinburgh and Glasgow have had in drawing support. As Scottish author Christopher Brookmyre once observed, international matches at Murrayfield are “the biggest private school re-unions in the world”.

But the optimism is not confined to Irish ranks. Scotland are in the position many Celtic teams revel in: underdogs at home against the leaders but refreshed by a win in their last outing. This is right up their street.

This Scottish team have also come on immeasurably from their opening-day defeat to Wales, not least because Frank Hadden has sharpened their cutting edge by bringing in the Evans brothers. Max Evans is especially creative with his footwork and clever little kicks, while Thom and in-form fellow winger Simon Danielli give them a finishing edge they haven’t had in aeons.

Almost as significantly, Euan Murray missed their opening two games, having been instrumental in the huge Scottish scrummaging performances against the All Blacks and the Springboks last autumn. An immensely strong man, and favourite for the Lions’ number three jersey, at a stroke his return saw the pack dissect the renowned Italian scrum.

Although Allan Jacobsen has been sidelined on the other side of the scrum, it’s still liable to be a potent weapon. And, loosehead apart, the other half-dozen changes since the Welsh opener have probably improved the side.

Hugo Southwell has played his way off the team, but Chris Paterson has landed all eight of his kicks as a replacement.

Ireland’s discipline has been almost exemplary, with a cumulative penalty count of 44-22 in their favour, whereas the Scots have conceded 33 penalties to 26. But one wonders how long this can last under South African referee Jonathan Kaplan today, and particularly whether he and his touch judges keep an eye on the offside line.

As is the way of rugby, this has been a campaign of plagiarising: France learned from England’s performance against Wales, and Scotland will take a leaf from the English manual today to defend hard from the outside in to clip the width from Ireland’s game.

According to the statistics, the Scots have also completed the most offloads (42) and passes (545), whereas Ireland are bottom of the table in both categories (10 and 380). As coach Declan Kidney observed, Ireland have completed the fewest tackles, though this can be attributed largely to how well they have played and dominated possession.

The defence has been excellent, with the “shooters” choosing their moments right and only once let down inside. But they will need to up their double-tackles to cut down on those offloads.

The key though, as usual, will be how much hard yards and go-forward ball the Irish pack generate.

The weight of expectation rests mostly on Ireland’s shoulders, who stand 80 minutes away from a shot at immortality; so this is a huge test for this team and management. It’s liable to be a much tougher game than many expect.

The scrum may wobble but should survive, while a ruthless and disciplined performance will be necessary as ever against the Scots, particularly in the clear-outs.

This is all about Paul O’Connell and co in a mean-looking back five matching the forward intensity of the second half against England.

Ronan O’Gara’s form has been a concern, but he’s due a big game today, and being in harness once again with Peter Stringer ought to give him more room and time for decision-making.

Ireland will be wary of letting it become a little skittish, with skirmishes rather than trench warfare. But at the same time, if the pack begin to rumble forward and put the Scots on the back foot, they have the strike power to use selectively, particularly with the higher tempo Stringer can inject into the game and with Gordon D’Arcy back alongside the rejuvenated Brian O’Driscoll.

Concerned by the vast amount of insider knowledge in the Scottish camp, the shuffle in personnel may have partly been to make them a little more difficult for their hosts to analyse. But thus far, in three markedly contrasting games, Ireland have also shown the kind of tactical flexibility required in the unique melting pot that is the Six Nations.

The Scots also probably nourished the hope that Ireland might be a little over-confident, but the experience of the entire group, plus those four changes, ought to militate against that.

The Scots will have their moments and spells, but Ireland look the better group of players, with a superior all-round game and look more likely to sustain the quality of their performance.

Head-to-head:Played 122. Scotland 62 wins, Ireland 54 wins, 5 Draws, 1 Abandoned.

Last five meetings:2008: Ireland 34 Scotland 14 (Croke Park); 2007: Scotland 31 Ireland 21 (Murrayfield); Scotland 18 Ireland 19 (Murrayfield); 2006: Ireland 15 Scotland 9 (Lansdowne Road); 2005: Scotland 13 Ireland 40 (Murrayfield).

This year:Scotland: 13-26 v Wales (h); 13-22 v France (a); 26-6 v Italy (h). Ireland: 30-21 v France (h); 38-9 v Italy (a); 14-13 v England (h).

Leading try scorers:Scotland: M Evans, T Evans, S Danielli, S Gray 1 each. Ireland: B O'Driscoll 3, L Fitzgerald 2.

Leading points scorers:Scotland: C Paterson 24. Ireland: R O'Gara 32.

Betting (Paddy Power):12/5 Scotland, 28/1 Draw, 4/11 Ireland. Handicap (= Scotland +7pts) 10/11 Scotland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.

Forecast:Ireland to win.