Road to glory starts here

Rugby's World Cup hardly conjures up an image of widespread global participation, nor does it suggest a complex or arduous route to the promised land, but the list of countries who embark on the qualification process is more extensive than you think. Ireland, England and Scotland are the last remaining seeds, per se, to begin the qualification process, but that should not deflect from the fact that to date there have been 116 matches to determine the 20 nations that will graduate to the World Cup Finals proper.

There are eight berths still to be claimed for the World Cup finals which begin on October 1st, 1999. Six will be filled when the groups involving Ireland, England and Scotland have been resolved, with a further two places available in a repechage.

Ireland and Romania should emerge from their three-cornered squabble with Georgia. England and Italy should distance themselves from the Netherlands. Scotland and Spain should ease past Portugal. The World Cup organisers, while offering a nominal qualification process, believe in stacking the deck.

They have decreed that Ireland, England and Scotland will each host a group in the World Cup finals, irrespective of how they fare in qualifying, earning the mantle of Europe 1, Europe 2 and Europe 3 in that order.

It was originally scheduled that the runners-up in each qualifying pool would accompany the group winners into the same section in the finals. The organisers have now decided otherwise and there will be an open draw on December 6th to determine World Cup finals pool placings.

Applying this in an Irish context, it means that any one of Romania, Spain or Italy - assuming they are the other automatic qualifiers - could be drawn alongside Australia, US and Ireland in Pool E. Warren Gatland would favour the Costa del Sol over the Italian Riviera.

Should Georgia, the Netherlands and Portugal finish bottom of their respective qualifying groups, they still have one final opportunity to make the World Cup finals through the repechage.

Georgia would play Tonga, the Netherlands would pit their wits against Korea and Portugal would face Uruguay. Morocco receive a bye. The winners of the Georgia/Tonga game and those in the Netherlands/Korea match would then meet on a home and away basis.

Whichever country prevails would go through to the finals to Pool B as repechage 1.

The winner of the Georgia/Tonga game would meet Morocco, home and away, the victors going through to the finals, to Pool A as repechage 2.

Confused? It gets easier.

What can be elicited at this stage is that South Africa and Scotland are likely to be in Pool A; New Zealand and England in Pool B; France, Fiji, Canada and Namibia comprise Pool C; Wales, Argentina, Western Samoa and Japan Pool D; and Australia, US and Ireland will come together in Pool E with one other.

Once again dusting off the crystal ball, if Ireland were to finish runners-up in Pool E then they would face a play-off for a quarter-final place. The five pool winners go through to the quarterfinals, the five second-placed teams are joined by best third place team, with a further three places at stake in the play-offs.

Ireland are fortunate in that the runners-up in Pool E play the best third-placed team and not a fellow runner-up. That match would take place in Lens, France, with the winner returning to Lansdowne Road and a probable quarter-final against the French.

Further progress would provide for a semi-final against the All Blacks in Twickenham and a final against the winners of, possibly, South Africa and Australia. I have to stop writing now because it's time for my medicine.