Irish need to defy odds one more time

Could it be that FIFA are just toying with us? Bringing the draw for this autumn's play-offs forward more than a month so as …

Could it be that FIFA are just toying with us? Bringing the draw for this autumn's play-offs forward more than a month so as to give us a glimpse of the route to the World Cup finals just as Holland arrive to block our path again certainly seems unusually cruel. But then there's little question who the suits from Zurich would want to be Europe's 15th team in Korea and Japan next year.

Lansdowne Road is not a place that Irish teams surrender their dreams easily, though, and as Mick McCarthy prepares his men for what looks increasingly like a final eliminator for a place in next summer's tournament, the hope is that grit rather than greatness will be enough to win the day for the home team.

Little has been given away by either manager in the build-up to the game and McCarthy yesterday continued to prove evasive regarding his starting line-up for this afternoon.

Ian Harte, he claimed, will play, having passed himself fit after yesterday's final training session - "He says he's okay and if he is then he plays, it's as simple as that," said the manager. But which two of three will play up front, as well as the identity of Ireland's right-sided midfielder, remained matters for speculation.

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All week McCarthy pushed the guessing game one way then another and yesterday was no different. More than once, however, he has stated that the Dutch would not be surprised by the Ireland they encounter this afternoon and that, one presumes, can be taken as a welcome hint that he will steer clear of the calamitous tinkering with formation and style that marked the closing stages of the team's failed attempt to qualify for Euro 2000.

Though he positively raved about the performance of Damien Duff and Robbie Keane up front against the Croatians, it should mean that he will not abandon the traditional deployment of a substantial physical presence in attack. With everybody at their best, that would mean Keane partnering Niall Quinn up front and Damien Duff on one flank or other.

The continuing inability of the Leeds striker to rediscover his best form means, however, that Duff may again start alongside the Sunderland man, leaving a vacancy on the wing for the experienced but erratic Jason McAteer or the more quietly efficient Steve Finnan.

Yesterday McCarthy observed that much will depend on his players' ability to handle the situation and the biggest question mark once again hangs over the defence, where Steve Staunton and Richard Dunne face the daunting task of having to contain an attacking unit that has run much better defences ragged.

If the pair play badly then Ireland will require a miracle to achieve the draw required to stay on course for a place in the play-offs, but so far the younger man has saved his stinkers for the qualification sideshows while Staunton has looked better on each of his recent appearances in the side. The hope is that they emerge as the heroes of the drama today.

Few, meanwhile, have any doubts about how the driving force behind the Irish team, Roy Keane, will handle the pressure. Looking calm and relaxed yesterday he made it clear that nothing could be taken for granted for, he said: "Football has a habit of kicking you in the teeth." But there was no mistaking his quiet determination to get himself and this Ireland team to Asia next summer.

"It's going to be difficult because they have improved a lot under their manager," he said. "We probably caught them at a good time last year - it was their first competitive game under him and it takes a while for a new manager to get his ideas across.

"But our preparations have gone well and the mentality with the players is always the same: to win, whether it's a five-a-side, a game of cards, whatever. They need to win, but to be honest they always play like that anyway. It should be a great game for the fans."

For those who like to believe that the future is written in the statistics, the signs are confusing. Ireland are unbeaten in 14 competitive matches at Lansdowne Road under Mick McCarthy - the run extends to 15 without loss if you throw in the 2-1 defeat of Latvia under Jack Charlton back in October 1995.

Against the Dutch, though, we tend to fare less well, with just one win and three draws from our 10 meetings in competitive situations appearing to offer little enough reason for encouragement.

In Amsterdam a year ago, Mick McCarthy's side might well have beaten a Dutch side that has not, so far, come through a Group Two game against anybody but Cyprus and Andorra without conceding a couple of goals. But this is close to being their strongest squad and this afternoon they will add Jaap Stam, Boudewijn Zenden and Marc Overmars to the side that conceded a couple to Ireland last September.

Stam's presence will certainly strengthen the central defence, just as Ruud van Nistelrooy's inclusion will sharpen the attack. And then there is the pace of the wingers which will undoubtedly cause problems for the Irish full backs this afternoon.

The Dutch are not entirely without their flaws, however. Edwin van der Sar was sold last month by Juventus after the club grew impatient with his increasingly regular blunders, while the defence in front of him will contain two players, Mario Melchiot and Kevin Hofland, who have won just eight caps between them.

Zenden's habit of carelessly surrendering possession, a knack that came to overshadow much of the positive contribution he made at Euro 2000, could be a problem for Louis van Gaal's side too, while Patrick Kluivert's virtual disappearance in the Amsterdam Arena last year when put under persistent physical pressure by Richard Dunne suggests that even the great talents of the side can be contained if the Irish can impose themselves on the proceedings today.

On balance, the Dutch must still start as favourites and McCarthy's assertions that, "we're top of the group, unbeaten and at home" is as close as you are going to get to a logical basis for tipping his side.

Still, when Steve Staunton observed earlier this week, with more than a slight hint of irritation, that "nobody gave us a chance 12 months ago but we keep proving you all wrong", he was spot on.

Long may he continue to be so.

POSSIBLE LINE-UPS

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND: Given (Newcastle); Kelly (Leeds United), Dunne (Manchester City), Staunton (Aston Villa), Harte (Leeds United); Finnan (Fulham), Holland (Ipswich), Keane (Manchester United), Kilbane (Sunderland); Quinn (Sunderland), Duff (Blackburn Rovers).

THE NETHERLANDS: Van der Sar (Fulham); Melchiot (Chelsea), Stam (Lazio), Hofland (PSV), Van Bronckhurst (Arsenal); Zenden (Chelsea), Van Bommel (PSV), Cocu (Barcelona), Overmars (Barcelona); Kluivert (Barcelona); Van Nistelrooy (Manchester United).

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone

Emmet Malone is Work Correspondent at The Irish Times