Friendly welcome fails to mask local fear factor

ON RUGBY:The party is set to start but the collective self-doubt of New Zealanders about removing the gorilla from their backs is rife

THOUSANDS HAVE been turning up to welcome the various squads to have landed in New Zealand over the last few days. Even England were taken aback by the 200 or so mostly white-clad supporters who greeted them in Dunedin, Martin Johnson dryly noting that it’s not something they normally receive hereabouts. The warmth of the Maori welcomes and native hospitality has been a credit to New Zealand.

The World Cup is already dominating the front and back pages in advance of Friday’s opener in Eden Park when Tonga are fed to the All Blacks. Memories of 1987, when New Zealand both last won and hosted the World Cup, have been repeatedly invoked. But there is an edginess here, a palpable fear that once again the All Blacks might not reach their holy grail.

One Irish punter pounced heavily on the All Blacks in ’87 at slightly better than evens on the premise that not only were they at home but they were also, in effect, the only quasi-professional team in the tournament. At odds-on, in an era of fully-fledged professionalism, where at least three teams (Australia, South Africa and France have again proven) and possibly more, can realistically beat them on any given day, they represent no value.

And as Grant Fox, their masterful outhalf in the victorious crew of ’87 recently noted, the intervening “failures” haven’t led to a monkey on the All Blacks’ collective backs, more like a gorilla.

The doubts have been inspired most obviously by the 25-20 defeat to Australia in Brisbane last Saturday week, which compounded the defeat to South Africa a week before.

New Zealand appears to be a little spooked, all the more so as it was the dastardly Wallabies – now coached by the one-time prophet in his own land, Robbie Deans – who inflicted the collective blow to the Kiwi psyche. The thought of Deans leading Australia to victory in Eden Park on October 23rd is the worst nightmare of the vast majority of four million New Zealanders, especially if it’s at the expense of the All Blacks.

This in turn has been compounded by Kieran Read joining Adam Thomson on the casualty list in Brisbane, with Read’s ankle injury perhaps prohibiting his return until the final pool game at best. As a result the All Blacks only have three specialist backrowers still standing, and the 24-year-old Victor Vito, a slightly surprising squad inclusion ahead of Liam Messam, is expected to be thrust into the number eight role.

An article in yesterday's New Zealand Heraldby columnist Chris Rattue, admittedly a long-standing Graham Henry critic and Deans supporter, highlighted how Henry possibly has the least enviable job in world rugby.

He described Mils Muliaina as “a static old fullback” and said the All Blacks have “no outstanding wings, almost no tried and tested back-up”. Highlighting the backrow mini-crisis and a host of other issues, he wrote: “On the verge of the mighty assignment the All Blacks squad has got more holes than a Swiss cheese at the OK Corral.”

One’s mind went back to an interview with Henry in the Conrad Hotel last November prior to the meeting with Ireland, when wondering as to his fate were the All Blacks not to win the World Cup at their sixth attempt and his second. “I’m dead,” he answered good naturedly if cryptically.

Collective sensitivity to the All Blacks’ brand is never less than acute here, with outcry to England donning their ridiculous all black strip against Argentina on Saturday gathering volume. This is also the phoney war.

Even so it’s been surprising to note how one column by an English journalist now living in New Zealand accusing the All Blacks of being cheats so dominated debate over the weekend.

If nothing else though, Ireland will enjoy local support for the pivotal Pool C clash against Australia in Eden Park on Saturday week. Virtually everywhere you go it seems as if New Zealanders are imploring Ireland to inflict some damage on the Wallabies’ swelling self-confidence.

A striking theme of all previous World Cup winners is how, among other factors, they’ve usually had the best scrumhalf in the world pulling the strings, and with Will Genia on top of his game, the two-time champions are once again looking the part.

The All Blacks can take heart from their win over the Wallabies in Eden Park, which along with the Brisbane clash assuredly constituted the two highest quality matches of the year – both played at an extraordinary tempo and intensity, yet full of wonderful game-breaking individualism and collectivity.

The likelihood remains that the Eden Park match was a dress rehearsal for the final, and were it to come to it, the All Blacks – gorilla et al – would still be favourites provided Dan Carter and Richie McCaw stay healthy. The odds also strongly suggest the three Tri-Nations teams will make up the semi-finalists along with either England or France, perhaps set to meet again in the quarter-finals (in which scenario, England would be seeking a third knock-out win in successive tournaments against France).

Rugby and its World Cups can be ritualistically predictable. Hence, although it came partly at Ireland’s painful expense, and even more so the French hosts, Argentina were a welcome revelation at the last tournament, contributing significantly to it being the best World Cup so far.

Argentina are not in the toughest group and will embroil England and Scotland in arm wrestles (Pool B may not be overflowing with classics). Alas, a la Italy’s advent to the Six Nations and on the eve of Argentina’s admittance to the Tri-Nations, Los Pumas’ golden generation are mostly no more, and without the injured Juan Martin Hernandez, they remain reliant on the 38-year-old Mario Ledesma and the 34-year-old Felipe Contepomi.

Wales, Ireland or perhaps Samoa look more credible alternatives to upset the apple cart. Any deviation from a big four carve-up in the semis would again be very welcome, not least if a certain team in green were to make that possible.