THIS IS it, the big one. It always is. Alas, only one of the protagonists has reached this climactic point with the grand prize at stake, but even if it were played with a beachball in front of two men and a dog, Ireland v England will always have a resonance.
The sight of the English chariot chugging into town could be just what the doctor ordered for this spluttering Irish team. Maybe we are deluded, but they still look the better team, and are both older (average 28 as against England’s 26) and wiser (622 caps to 314).
Of course, England’s lack of experience can also mean a lack of mental baggage. And there’s probably no better man to have in their corner than Martin Johnson, the Slam and World Cup-winning captain of ’03 and one of the truly outstanding figures in the global game over the last 15 years.
Perhaps Johnson was playing mind games yesterday when he suggested Ireland were the ones under pressure, with England merely excited by their sense of opportunity.
“They (Ireland) have had a couple of disappointing results for them. At the start of the tournament they were a little below the radar and I thought it was set up for them to have a really good year.”
You and plenty of others mate.
Citing last week’s three one-score games, Johnson also observed “there’s a fine line between being four from four and two from four” – although in Ireland’s case, conceivably, it could also have been zero from four.
Ireland being a cardiac team, what odds it comes down to a late drop goal by Ronan O’Gara or Jonny Wilkinson (who have 1,097 championship points between them)?
As last week’s games also reminded us, no match can be weighed up without consideration of the referee. Bryce Lawrence officiated Ireland’s defeat to Australia in Brisbane last June and the mind-numbing, 17-3 win over Argentina at Croke Park in November ’08, as well as England’s 12-10 defeat in Paris last season. He certainly knows his law book, and there were 19 full penalties and three indirect frees in his match in Rome last Saturday.
The forecast is again set fair, and on a Saturday evening under lights it would be nice if the occasion at least resembled a home match.
But recalling the vast swathes from the Red Rose fraternity who travelled for their coronation in ’03, not to mention how the French manufactured so many tickets a few weeks ago, it would be another apt commentary on our economic times if it didn’t.
Officially, the English RFU are entitled to 5,500 tickets, but with this game traditionally providing a golden goose for the hard-pressed Irish clubs (who sell about 35,000 of the tickets), heaven knows how many will be aboard the Sweet Chariot.
If there were ever a day to be green and be seen (and be loud), it’s today.
Such has been the change wrought by Johnson with a revamped team – partially enforced by injuries, but much carved in his own image – England bring a powerful scrum and maul, good target runners such as the in-form backrower James Haskell and a pair of halves in Ben Youngs and Toby Flood who attack the gain line better than any others in the tournament.
They have the only back three who counter-attack, and have a more settled and effective policy of employing their bench, to which Tom Croft’s return has been another boon.
Yet, there’s every chance of Ireland finally delivering on their ability and winning this one. A fired-up, aggressive defence – a key component of most of the six wins since ’04 – along with targeting Dylan Hartley’s throw and England’s callow-looking and unproven midfield of Shontayne Hape and Matt Banahan (each winning only his 11th cap) offers plenty of encouragement.
Ireland’s tempo has been a little slow, but if they can clear out quick ball off the carriers – Cian Healy, Paul O’Connell, David Wallace and Jamie Heaslip – and generate some offloads, then perhaps Ireland might even get, in tandem with Seán O’Brien, Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll running at Hape and Banahan.
Even allowing for the loss of the influential Mike Tindall, there has to be better English midfielders around than the Bath duo. Hape is a league convert whose passing can be sluggish and who was badly at fault for the Welsh try, while Banahan, powerful man that he is at 6ft 7in, is a converted winger starting just his second Test in the most important defensive position in the backline – witness O’Driscoll’s peerless work there for the last dozen years.
Given the week that’s in it, memories of the cricketers and the exploits in Cheltenham, it’s worth noting that today marks the 11th anniversary of O’Driscoll’s hat-trick in Paris.
Presuming the scrum survives, and Keith Earls catches Flood’s first bomb, then there’s no reason why confidence shouldn’t surge through the team.
This is also England, and, however infuriatingly clichéd it may be, Irish teams tend to rise to the occasion – see the All Blacks in November – and this team oozes big occasion players.
But have things gone a little stale for this Irish team? Do they have the enthusiasm and belief to finally deliver?
It would be no great surprise if they did, but England have the confidence and the momentum, as well as the greater prize at stake.
HEAD-TO-HEAD:Played 123, Ireland won 45, England won 70, Drawn 8.
BETTING:13/8 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 8/15 England. Handicap (Ireland +4pt) 10/11 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 England.
Forecast:England. Just. Maybe.
