ON RUGBY:The guessing game is nearly up and so far it's looking good for the touring management, writes GERRY THORNLEY
AND SO, at long last, the guessing game of the season finally comes to a conclusion on Thursday when the vexed make-up of the Lions’ first Test XV is revealed. Ian McGeechan and his think tank, in marked contrast to four years ago, have not only kept us guessing that little bit longer but also ensured that the players themselves will feel, overall, that they were granted a fairer crack of the whip. As an aside, the starting team will actually be based much more on form than was the case in New Zealand. Very clever, Mr McGeechan.
Given the Springboks have had even less match practice – one outing against Namibia without their Super 14-winning Blue Bulls core – and with yet more revised laws such as the rebirth of the maul, not giving the Test XV a trial run in the shortest run-in ever seems a gamble worth taking.
Of course, not every player will feel he’s been granted an entirely level playing field. Thus far, the Lions have hit their straps in the cooler evening air of the midweek games when scoring 15 tries and conceding one against the Golden Lions (74-10) and Natal Sharks (39-3), whereas even the wetter, breezier conditions of Cape Town didn’t provide much in the way of light relief after the previous Saturday afternoon struggles against the Royal XV and the Cheetahs in Rustenburg and Durban.
Yesterday’s selection to play Southern Kings strongly suggests the 14 players remaining behind in Durban have been pencilled in for the first Test.
Rob Kearney performed well in the first of these but by then Lee Byrne had already made his mark as the match-winner and one of the few successes of that undistinguished tour opener. Kearney’s kicking game and familiarity with the left-wing role for province and country, not least because of his aerial strength and kicking game, should earn him a place on the bench if his dead leg recovers.
Tommy Bowe must be one of the five or six certainties after his three high quality efforts to date. His heads-up brand of rugby, special awareness, soft hands, lines of running and finishing give the Lions another dimension in attack.
Brian O’Driscoll and Jamie Roberts were a well-balanced midfield partnership in both the midweek wins and will assuredly be again. Shane Williams having struggled to regain his form, it now appears as if Ugo Monye’s physicality and three tries in two outings on the left wing has edged out Luke Fitzgerald.
If so, Fitzgerald will have suffered for being picked out of position at inside centre against the Cheetahs, for he is the better all-round footballer, and in his one start on the wing against the Sharks looked very sharp.
Curiously, the appointment of Stephen Jones as the Lions number 10 appears a fait accompli, despite the Welshman’s singularly unsure outing in Cape Town. Both he and Ronan O’Gara looked the part in the midweek games, less in the Saturday games.
Jones has carried better, and O’Gara may have kicked a little too much against the Sharks, but even when not at his absolute best, he has been playing more winning rugby this season. It’s to Jones’ advantage that his Welsh halfback partner Mike Phillips is a nailed-on certainty at scrumhalf.
But it is the pack which will cause McGeechan most debate. Lee Mears started both midweek games and has long since looked another shoo-in – if partly by default. Winning their own lineout ball will be critical for the Lions, and Mears’ darts have been the most accurate, while he improves the tight five’s ball-handling skills.
Andrew Sheridan and Euan Murray have their admirers, especially for their impressive scrimmaging. But mobility, tackling and work-rate are usually more important nowadays, and are liable to be against such a huge and dynamic Boks’ pack especially.
Gethin Jenkins is a more complete loosehead and the two-time World Cup finalist Phil Vickery looks in good nick to give Paul O’Connell another lieutenant on the pitch. Unless there is a policy to give Murray and Adam Jones a half each today, the surprise is that Adam Jones has seemingly been preferred on the bench.
O’Connell’s prospective partner has polarised debate. Akin to Vickery, there’s an argument for including Shaw’s experience and breakdown work, whereas the Lions appear to favour the athleticism and lineout work of Alun-Wyn Jones, but Nathan Hines arguably provides the best blend. He would now appear to be in a three-way fight for one of the two or three bench places still up for grabs.
The Lions are going to need plenty of mongrel and narkiness, and given their difficulties at the breakdown, they will also need to keep the ball off the ground as much as possible. Hines would up the tight five’s offloading game, and as an aside, it would also be nice to see at least one Scot in there.
The selection of Alun-Wyn Jones ought to arguably decrease the argument for including Tom Croft at blindside. The breakdown will be key and for all his athleticism on the hard grounds, Croft’s penchant for conceding penalties and relative lack of grunt makes him something of a luxury outcome, but he has had two starts at six, and David Wallace none.
Wallace was so good in those wins over the Golden Lions and the Sharks it’s very hard to see how his dynamism and tackling can be overlooked. He played at openside in both, although the Lions could also do with an X-factor; a clever ball-playing, game-breaking link between forwards and backs. In other words, Martyn Williams.
A Wallace-Jamie Heaslip-Williams backrow wouldn’t lack for work-rate and effectiveness at the breakdown, but one suspects Wallace will now miss out, and have to settle for a place on the bench.
That role might have suited Andy Powell better. The Welshman’s efforts against Western Province were an improvement on his somewhat one-dimensional displays until then. The Lions are also going to need serious impact off the bench, which is probably why they were of a mind to pick Powell in the first place. But if neglecting that option next Saturday, then this Lions’ think tank seems to have a good idea of what they’re up to.
POSSIBLE LIONS SELECTION: Byrne; Bowe, O’Driscoll, Roberts, Monye; S Jones, Phillips; Jenkins, Mears, Vickery, Wyn Jones, O’Connell, Croft, Williams, Heaslip. Replacements: Rees, A Jones, Hines, Powell, Ellis, O’Gara, Kearney.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
