Predicting Olympic medal winners has always been a tricky business, even as the Games get ever closer. But Nielsen’s Gracenote Virtual Medal Table has a good record on it and has just upped Ireland’s possible tally to nine, including two gold.
Marking 30 days to go before the Opening Ceremony on July 26th, they have made their latest gold, silver and bronze predictions known for all countries after updating all available results data from key global and continental competitions since the delayed 2021 Games in Tokyo.
Having won four medals in Tokyo – two gold and two bronze – Gracenote are now predicting nine medals for Ireland in Paris with two gold, two silver and five bronze. This would surpass the record six-medal haul from London 2012, which included one gold medal for boxer Katie Taylor.
The latest prediction is also up from the seven medals projected at the 100 days to go mark, with Gracenote again expecting gold for defending champions Paul O’Donovan and Fintan McCarthy in the rowing lightweight double sculls, which would also make O’Donovan the first Irish athlete to win medals in three successive Games (having also won silver with his brother Gary in Rio 2016).
Two more medals are being predicted in rowing – bronze for Daire Lynch and Philip Doyle in the men’s double sculls and bronze for Aifric Keogh and Fiona Murtagh in the women’s pair.
Gymnast Rhys McClenaghan is also predicted to win gold in the pommel horse, the back-to-back world champion from Newtownards unquestionably establishing his dominance in the event since Tokyo.
Kellie Harrington, who took the 60kg boxing gold in Tokyo, is predicted to win silver, with boxing medals also predicted for Diana Moorehouse (bronze in the 50kg) and Aoife O’Rourke (bronze in the 75kg).
In golf, Rory McIlroy is predicted to win silver while, in swimming, Daniel Wiffen is predicted to win bronze in the 800m freestyle although after his double gold at the World Championships in Doha back in February, the Armagh swimmer might have something to say about that.
On the last prediction table, Cian O’Connor was predicted to win bonze in the individual equestrian event, although he has now dropped out of that top three.
There is no mention of a medal in track or field, despite Rhasidat Adeleke finishing fourth in the 400m at the World Championships in Budapest last summer, as did Ciara Mageean in the 1,500m. Mageean claimed a European Championship gold in Rome last month while the 21-year-old Adeleke finished second in the 400m.
With those nine medals, Ireland is predicted to finish 30th on the overall medal table, up six places from the last prediction table marking 100 days to go, and nine places better than the country’s joint 39th placing in Tokyo.
The United States is predicted to win the most medals, 123 in all including 39 gold, ahead of China (89) and Great Britain (66), with host nation France predicted to finish fourth with 55 medals.
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