Three months on from the attacks on New York and Washington, remarkable progress has been made in the military campaign against its suspected perpetrators in Afghanistan. As Americans and people in 79 other countries marked the intervening three months yesterday with memorial ceremonies, reports indicated that bombing assaults on the Tora Bora complex near the Afghan border with Pakistan have driven the al-Qaeda fighters there to the point of surrender. While this has not been confirmed it is likely to be only a matter of days before they do so, even if their leader Osama bin Laden and many of his followers remain at large. The fact that a transitional government will now control Afghanistan makes it much more difficult for them to continue their campaigns against the US and its allies.
Statements by President Bush and his Secretary of Defence, Mr Rumsfeld, that the US will not let up in pursuing them must be put alongside assurances by the Secretary of State, Mr Powell, that there are no current US plans to broaden military action against other states. That reassures European allies who have warned against any such course and who are now ready to contribute troops to a multinational force in Kabul. It would back up the transitional government and be mandated by the United Nations under agreements reached at Bonn last week. It looks likely to consist of about 5,000 troops, initially under British and later under Turkish command. Prospects for a UN peacekeeping force in the longer term remain unclear and unconvincing, but this should not take from the exceptionally skilful negotiations that have put the transitional government in place.
It will be a major achievement if it can hold together through the winter and prepare for a gathering of traditional leaders to plan elections and the longer term future of the country. The new government faces a major task of asserting its authority over warlords in the north, west and centre of the country, so that emergency humanitarian aid can be provided. But some progress is being made on that front. The opening of a bridge between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan this week will allow much needed supplies to be distributed more easily in that region, while lorries are now getting through to Kabul from Pakistan on a regular daily basis.
Last night President Bush reaffirmed his determination to proceed with the military modernisation he has been committed to introducing in the US armed forces, bolstered by the successes in this campaign. New threats to US security from terrorist groups and the need for enhanced intelligence facilities, both human and technological, loom large in these plans. He also insisted that the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty which prohibits missile defence systems is out of date and should be abolished - but paid tribute to Russia's willingness to engage the US in negotiations on it. Such plans indicate that much has changed in the world since September 11th, along with the ability of the US to get its way. But this short war has also underlined the essential need for the US to cooperate with allies and partners to ensure it can do so.
