The pressure is on Serbia and the Bosnian Serbs to hand over leading figures to answer war crimes charges at the international tribunal in The Hague. This is a real test of international resolve on the Bosnian question, which will have a definite impact on how the Dayton accords are implemented for the rest of this year. The accords hinged on a crude but effective calculus of hard realism and rough justice - involving all the parties to the war and the main inter national players.
Now is the moment when the credibility of the process will turn on its capacity to bring accused war criminals to justice, as well as to ensure that elections are held. Considerable resolve has been brought to bear on these questions within the same calculus of interests. There has been a coordination of effort between European Union and United States representatives aimed at the Bosnian Serb leadership and at President Milosevic in Belgrade. The EU's Highly Representative, Mr Carl Bildt, has set out to remove Mr Radovan Karadzic from office as leader of the Bosnian Serbs, while the US has made it clear to Mr Milosevic that sanctions could be reintroduced if there is a failure to cooperate.
Mr Karadzic's frantic efforts to outmanoeuvre Mr Bildt by appointing even more hardline figures to replace him will not succeed in deflecting the objective of having him answer charges in The Hague, although there are suggestions that an agreement falling short of this may have been reached. The balance of advantage even for those he has been representing is in favour of the Dayton accords proceeding and this is even more the case for Mr Milosevic. He has recently had to counter angry street demonstrations against shortages his own survival depends on cooperation, however reluctant, with the international community. He is reportedly impressed by the practical cooperation on the ground and at leadership levels between the remarkably diverse forces in Ifor, which has responsibility for implementing the Dayton accords.
The tribunal must demonstrate that it is more than a token gesture to the depth of the suffering, the torture and the genocide that disfigured the international community for four long years. Next month a meeting in Geneva will review all elements of the process and how they should be coordinated. Those attending will be acutely aware that time is moving on and that the end of year deadline for withdrawal of the US troops from Ifor is coming closer. It is very difficult to discuss whether it will be met or extended, because of the US election. Many policy insiders believe it will be possible to extend it, given that it has worked so well, becoming in effect a laboratory for security and defence cooperation in post Cold War Europe. Ireland will have an important diplomatic role to play as EU president in negotiating these matters, in addition to the quite extensive and varied participation of this State in implementing the accords on the ground, even though Irish troops are not involved.
With this degree of international participation it will be a great setback and disappointment if the tribunal fails to deliver on the expectations it has aroused that justice be seen to be done at least against some of those responsible for the war crimes.