With just a week to go to polling in the referendums on the Belfast Agreement, the results of opinion polls conducted for the Irish Times by MRBI and the Harris Research Centre in the Republic and Northern Ireland provide both comfort and a serious warning for the two governments and for the parties committed to the agreement and to a peaceful future. In the four weeks that have elapsed since the last such exercise, opinion in the Republic has solidified behind the agreement and now offers 72 per cent support, compared to an earlier, more cautious figure of 61 per cent. But in Northern Ireland, the surge of euphoria which followed the political settlement and generated a 73 per cent support level across both communities, has dissipated. Nationalists are still overwhelmingly committed to the agreement. But unionists have become unsure of their voting intentions in the face of an aggressive No campaign waged by the DUP and the UKUP; divisions at parliamentary level within the UUP and a display of triumphalism by IRA prisoners at Sinn Fein's recent ardfheis. Support across both communities in the North now stands at 56 per cent, with 25 per cent opposed and 19 per cent still undecided. Translated into net votes, that result would provide a margin in favour of the agreement of 69 per cent compared to 31 per cent.
The precipitous fall in support for the agreement within Northern Ireland, since the last Irish Times/ MRBI poll in mid-April, will not have come as a surprise to the parties there. A number of recent surveys charted support for the agreement as falling to 52 per cent, with 13/14 per cent opposed and 34/35 per cent undecided. But the latest shift in attitudes, which shows a doubling in the level of unionist opposition to the agreement, from 22 to 45 per cent, is extremely worrying. And it reflects deep public concern over the early release of paramilitary prisoners. The figures, which still contain an undecided content of 20 per cent, would suggest the No campaign is winning the battle for the unionist middle ground. In that context, those who are urging No on the agreement, or those who are sitting on the fence and declining to come down one way or the other - although they hold positions of influence - have a duty to set out what alternatives they see to the agreement.
The two governments yesterday gave specific reassurances that republicans would not be allowed to cherry-pick from the agreement and that Sinn Fein could not take seats in the new Northern Executive in the absence of arms decommissioning. Paramilitary organisations would have to co-operate with the International Decommissioning Body next June, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, insisted. Otherwise, there would be "no way forward" for the political parties involved. In Belfast, the British Prime Minister made no distinction between the political and military wings of the various movements when he promised to give legislative effect to the need for a commitment by republicans and loyalists to non-violence and to exclusively peaceful and democratic means. In addition, full co-operation would be required from them in the decommissioning of arms. Mr Blair also provided reassurances on the future of the RUC when he said there was no question of disbanding the force or creating a situation where paramilitaries took over local policing.
These interventions, along with an assertive campaign by Mr David Trimble, are expected to shore up wavering support amongst unionists. The Belfast Agreement offers lasting peace and reconciliation. It is too valuable a prize to risk because of an emotional, if understandable, response to the early release of paramilitary prisoners.