As so often before it's down to the IRA to dictate whether politics canmove forward, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The Government jet was struck by lightning as it was about to land in Belfast on black Tuesday. The Taoiseach is reputed to be a bad flyer. That hardly helped his nerves as he faced into the dire proceedings that unfolded at Hillsborough Castle.
What was it like? "A big bang and a big flash of light," said one of the officials on board.
That's the sort of event that might have saved Tuesday from descending into disaster and farce - a big bang and a big flash of light, preferably a couple of tonnes of IRA Semtex blowing up 100 tonnes of IRA weapons.
But it wasn't to be - at least not publicly. Tony Blair effectively said that if only David Trimble knew what he knew about the extent of Tuesday's IRA decommissioning, that he and Ulster Unionists would be facing into the November 26th Assembly poll as very happy pro-Belfast Agreement politicians.
If only. The extent of the governments' frustration and annoyance was palpable from 4 p.m. when Gen John de Chastelain delivered his rather clumsy press conference in the Throne Room of the castle.
As an aside, one should not underestimate how badly this is all playing among the people of the North. Unless there is a quick resolution, they face into a gruelling, bitter, negative election with an ever-deepening sense of apathy and cynicism.
"It was the day when hope and hype rhymed," said BBC presenter David Dunseith yesterday, in a parody of Séamus Heaney's "hope and history" poem about the Good Friday Agreement. That was a fair summary of how ordinary people view this latest debacle.
But back to the general ... It only took a few sentences for him to inform reporters that he had witnessed the IRA putting weapons and explosives beyond use for the third time. Gen de Chastelain looked deeply unhappy and uncomfortable.
As we learned that he could only provide sketchy details about what was decommissioned - albeit there was more detail than in the past - you could feel the sense of expectation drain out of the room.
Neither did his limp presentational skills inspire confidence. His commission colleague, Mr Andrew Sens, tried to be affirmative. "The material put beyond use this morning could have caused death or destruction on a huge scale had it been put to use," he said.
"Had Gen de Chastelain opened up with a sentence like that and gone on from there then we might not be in the mess that we are in," said one talks insider.
An understandable comment, but it does not reflect the reality. The nature of the detail provided by the general was never going to cut the mustard with Ulster Unionists, even the most liberal of pro-agreement unionists.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, knew that. That is why he flew to Belfast with a sense of foreboding, a feeling no doubt intensified by that shot of lightning.
But why weren't Mr Trimble's political antennae as finely attuned as the Taoiseach's. All the other detail was nailed down, some of it in very tortured language: the early morning election announcement, Mr Adams saying Sinn Féin was fully signed up to pursuing its goals by purely peaceful and democratic means and the IRA immediately afterwards saying Sinn Féin's position was the IRA's position.
Next up was Gen de Chastelain, to be followed by Mr Ahern and Mr Blair endorsing the deal and then Mr Trimble finally stamping his seal of approval on the agreement. Thereafter it would be all systems go for the elections and time for reporters and commentators to write their "hand of history, peace in our time" pieces.
But where was the general, we wondered, as morning faded into afternoon and evening? He was in the Republic, as it happens, boarding a helicopter from Dublin to Hillsborough to meet the leaders, according to a well-placed source, and brief them on what the IRA had destroyed.
When pressed by reporters, Gen de Chastelain said that it took some hours to oversee the actual decommissioning, but he insisted he was bound by a confidentiality agreement with the IRA and could not provide an inventory of what was rendered unusable.
Back at UUP HQ, Ulster Unionists were "banging the wall" in anger and frustration. "It was like expecting tickets to see Manchester United and finding that you're going to see Rochdale," said one football type at that meeting.
Over in the House of Commons yesterday, the former SDLP deputy leader, Mr Séamus Mallon, asked was this crisis caused by "Sinn Féin's deviousness" or "were the UUP simply incompetent?" Mr Adams was adamant that there was no republican deviousness, no deals about what the IRA would allow to be broadcast by Gen de Chastelain.
"My point is we had an agreement. All who were party to the sequence knew what was happening."
Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and the Rev Ian Paisley had great fun pointing up Mr Trimble's alleged weaknesses as a negotiator. One line of criticism was that as the Taoiseach was so reluctant to travel north, how therefore could a unionist leader be so gullible as to be conned by Mr Adams and P. O'Neill?
It appears to have been a leap of faith by Mr Trimble. Ulster Unionists in the most trenchant terms had pointed out beforehand, as was reported here, that decommissioning was the one issue that could scupper the deal.
There was clarity about all of the choreography, except for how the IRA would dance its routine.
Still, Mr Trimble had met Mr Adams more than a dozen times, he had shook his hand, he had developed some degree of trust with him - it seems he was prepared to gamble that the IRA would make it perfectly clear to ordinary unionists that here was decommissioning of a very substantial nature.
It was a gamble that did not pay off. Even if this situation is rescued, the Ulster Unionist leader will have been damaged. "We liked the words from Gerry Adams and the IRA, but this disaster has taken the impetus away from us that we needed going into elections," said one middle-of-the-road Ulster Unionist.
The Taoiseach and the Prime Minister are now prevailing on the IRA through Mr Adams to free Gen de Chastelain from his confidentiality clause. Contacts also continue between Mr Adams and Mr Trimble.
The silver lining at least is that both sides have refrained from heavy recrimination.
As so often before, it's down to the IRA, a paramilitary force, to dictate whether politics can move forward. Certainly Mr Adams was correct yesterday when he said there were only a couple of days to overcome this crisis. After that it must be put on the back boiler until after the election at the earliest.
What a mess.