All of our main political parties now face significant post-election dilemmas.
Fine Gael faces the challenge of asserting and achieving parity of esteem with a Fianna Fáil party to which the Irish electorate has given a larger number of votes and seats. The two parties will almost certainly be capable, after a bit of argy-bargy, of striking an agreement on an interpretation of parity that meets their respective requirements. However, Fine Gael also faces the problem of a party leader whose political persona is largely defined by the promise of “new energy”. While Simon Harris will no doubt bring his genuine energy to the new Government, he will find himself shoehorned, for several years, into the position of tánaiste, a far less comfortable role for a political Duracell Bunny than the role of taoiseach.
As Taoiseach, Harris has been ubiquitous and irrepressible, not only in every corner of Ireland but across every nook and cranny of Government, including on foreign policy issues – even if he should probably have allowed Micheál Martin, as Minister for Foreign Affairs, to take the lead on these more frequently.
Now, as second fiddle for an initial period of government at least, Harris will have to be more circumspect as well as more targeted in the deployment of his energy. This in turn implies a significant recalibration of his political persona – one that will be difficult to resurrect fully when he takes his turn as taoiseach.
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Sinn Féin, for its part, is likely to be constrained towards a temporary redefinition of its political approach. From being a party preparing assiduously for office and presenting itself as an alternative government, the new circumstances mean it will have to present itself, for the next several years at least, as a radical opposition party. Its approaches north and south of the border are likely to jar a bit more.
It also needs to balance two somewhat contradictory narratives. On the one hand, it is pursuing conversations with parties of the left in a doomed attempt to cobble together an alternative government that would exclude Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. On the other hand, it loudly decries the two centre/right parties as disrespectful for putting together a government that excludes Sinn Féin. The essential difference between the two approaches is mathematical plausibility.
The straightforward dilemma faced by the Labour Party is underscored by the contrasting positions enunciated publicly by different members of its new parliamentary party – namely, whether to seek to enter government with a view to nudging the next administration in a leftward direction and towards the implementation of some of its party policies, or to remain in opposition with the aim of avoiding the loss of seats at the next election, particularly with the risk of being outflanked by the Social Democrats.
The Labour Party knows from experience both the legitimate pride that flows from real achievements in government and the bitter electoral disappointment towards which that course is likely to lead.
To some extent the Social Democrats, given their rejection of the Labour Party’s not unreasonable efforts to forge a common position on participation in Government, face a similar dilemma. However, entering government would probably require a greater leap of imagination for the Social Democrats than for Labour. They have only ever known opposition, and their refrain over the years has often sounded like a denunciation of the failures of government without allowing for the complexities of running one. To an extent, they have built their growing support largely on the back of criticising Labour for its participation in the post-financial crash coalition government.
Fianna Fáil, as the clear winner of the election, faces fewer obstacles on the path ahead. Micheál Martin, having consolidated both his popularity in the party and respect from the electorate, will be the next taoiseach. However, in addition to the perennial problem of fitting a large ambitious parliamentary party into a limited number of ministerial jobs, he has two vital choices to make.
First, he is in pole position to decide how best to make up the Dáil numbers to ensure a solid and stable majority for the next five years. His options will depend on which potential partners make themselves available and how they set out their stalls. A range of gene pool Independents would seem to be Martin’s most straightforward choice. The Labour Party, depending on its own decision, would also have significant attractions for him.
The second choice facing the next taoiseach is at what level of ambition he should aim to pitch the next programme for Government. Fine Gael in particular will, of course, also play a crucial role in this. While responding to the unpredictability of events will always be a big challenge of government, the overall direction of the programme will largely determine Ireland’s future in an unsettled and unsettling world.
Alongside many other immense challenges, the incoming government will have to address two issues of nothing less than existential importance that are not, apparently, vote winners but are ultimately in the interests of all voters. It will have to decide whether, in the absence of the Green Party, to maintain and indeed step up support for the green agenda. And it must take ever more seriously the issue of Ireland’s security and defence.
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