The Irish peace process has been a constant reference point for Basque nationalists as they have sought a resolution of their conflict with Madrid. Its relevance is sharply disputed, however, by Spanish conservatives.
There are as many differences as parallels between the two situations. Nevertheless, the Irish experience offers some small glimmer of light in the ominous and confused climate created by Eta's lethal bombing of Barajas airport just before the New Year. The attack has made a brutal mockery of the ceasefire declared last March.
There have been many occasions when hopes of a peaceful and democratic settlement in the North were just as cruelly dashed by terrorist violence or political intransigence. But the Irish process has somehow not only survived such setbacks; it has advanced to a maturity few could have dreamed of 15 years ago.
It is unfortunately true that the current process in Spain was born limping, lacking at least three of the supports which have been essential to the development of its Irish counterpart. In the first place, the government's initiation of a dialogue with Eta has been aggressively undermined by the main Spanish opposition party. The deeply conservative Partido Popular (PP) has consistently accused the Socialist Party prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, of "surrendering to terrorism". This is in stark contrast to the bipartisan policy pursued in Britain. The PP even carried its campaign to the European Parliament where it enlisted the support of its allies, including Fine Gael, in a challenge to Zapatero's initiative.
Secondly, there are well-founded doubts about Eta's commitment to meaningful negotiation. Its highly clandestine inner council makes the IRA's Army Council look transparent. The Adams-McGuinness tandem has been a credible interlocutor because it was firmly in control of both the political and military wings of the republican movement. The great initial hope for this Basque ceasefire was Eta's apparent willingness to cede real leadership to its hitherto rather supine political supporters in Batasuna. It has recently become apparent that Eta has been continuing to attempt to dictate a political agenda to both Batasuna and the government.
The third major complication is that Batasuna has itself been technically illegal for the past five years, further weakening its role as an effective political agent. The party has complained that judicial charges against its leaders, and against youth groups allegedly linked to Eta, themselves constitute violations of the ceasefire.
But the crucial violation has come from Eta. Two unfortunate Ecuadorian immigrants are dead as a result. The Madrid bombing, and ample evidence of other attacks in preparation, make cynical nonsense of the group's claim that its ceasefire remains intact. Unless Batasuna can forcefully communicate that reality to Eta, a unique opportunity to resolve this conflict will have been missed.