IN ITS attempt to secure passage of the Lisbon Treaty after it was rejected in last year’s referendum, the Government is pursuing three strategies: changing its content, seeking guarantees on what it does or does not mean for Ireland and ensuring the voting public has sufficient knowledge to make an informed choice in a second referendum.
Having already secured a significant change in the treaty’s content enabling each member state to retain a European commissioner, Ministers are this week negotiating the guarantees on taxation, the right to life, family and education and security and defence and a declaration on workers’ rights which research shows are sought by Irish voters. Only if it gets them can it embark on a referendum campaign this autumn.
This is a coherent, multi-layered approach to an exceptionally difficult political problem arising from the treaty’s rejection by 52.3 per cent to 47.7 per cent on a turnout of 53.1 per cent. It is taking place in a very different set of circumstances compared to last year’s referendum. Neither the economic costs nor the political consequences of rejecting the treaty were properly debated and assessed during last year’s campaign, but they have been dramatically brought home to voters since then by the economic crisis and the pressing need for political solidarity from the European Union to combat its effects. As a result there has been a substantial shift in public attitudes to the Yes side since last autumn.
The commissioner change can be made without altering the treaty’s text. There is a constraint on the Government in seeking specific guarantees, since other member states do not want to ratify the treaty again or reopen points already negotiated to a conclusion. They have effectively refused to do that. This means the Government must concentrate on how the treaty provisions apply in Ireland. Having made the commitment to get legal guarantees by attaching them to a subsequent enlargement treaty it will be difficult to settle for less stringent undertakings in the form of political declarations or assurances. But the Taoiseach has a strong bargaining hand at tomorrow’s European Council because other leaders are so anxious to meet Irish concerns and get the treaty ratified.
Taxation, security and defence, the right to life, family and education and workers’ rights are the main issues that arose from research on why people voted No last time. The draft assurances set out to show that Ireland’s sovereignty and political identity is protected by the treaty provisions and to back that up with legal or political guarantees. They cover matters of fact and interpretation, and in the case of workers’ rights and social policy reiterate established EU policy based on hard-won political compromises between different positions. The same applies to legal rights on the right to life, family and education which should not be diluted.
These issues are likely to dominate the next referendum campaign. At the end of the day, however, voters will have to make a judgment on whether the treaty is on balance good or bad for Ireland.