INDIA'S PREMIER commercial and financial capital Mumbai was yesterday traumatised by the overnight attacks in which over 100 people were killed and 300 injured. Claimed by an unknown organisation, Indian leaders suspect the young men involved are associated with Islamist groups based in Pakistan, which have carried out similar acts elsewhere.
These atrocities therefore raise troubling questions about India's internal affairs ahead of general elections next year, in addition to relations with its largest neighbour at a time when Pakistan is anything but stable. Leaders of both countries and of India's major political parties must now do their best to calm inflamed attitudes.
Presumably these attacks are designed to have precisely such an inflammatory effect on Indian and international opinion. Targeting British, US, Indian Jews and Israeli visitors, major hotels, the city's main railway station and ordinary Indian civilians, this guerilla/"fedayeen" strategy relies on highly mobile young men armed lightly with automatic weapons and grenades. Their willingness to fight to the death and take hostages makes them a formidable enemy. Although there is a clear continuity from previous attacks in India and elsewhere, some of the tactics used are quite new and set frightening precedents.
If this is indeed an Islamic group the attacks will stoke up communal tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India and continuing tension in Kashmir. It is, however, important not to exaggerate these dangers or to underestimate the disgust felt by most Indians over such violence and their determination not to be provoked. Despite a series of attacks in Mumbai and other centres communal relations have not been fundamentally damaged. Nor has Mumbai's growing importance in the Indian economy been badly affected by previous incidents. On this occasion their coincidence with a sharp economic downturn could do more damage, but Mumbai's status as an economic hub and continental entreport should be basically unaffected.
Many see the hand of al-Qaeda in these events. The organisation responsible for the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington in 2001 is now directed from the Pakistani borderlands with Afghanistan. The pattern of attacks in major urban centres is hereby maintained. So is the skilful political timing pitched at a period of transition in India, Pakistan and the US. Pakistan, in particular, faces a most difficult future under an incoming Obama administration determined to prosecute the war against al-Qaeda in Afghanistan into Pakistani territory. There could be major propaganda gains for al-Qaeda if the transition is not handled intelligently.
Firmly targeted security measures must be combined with political dialogue within India and between Indian and Pakistani leaders to offset the damaging effects of these attacks. Too much is at stake for their democracy and stability if they are tempted to inflame inter-communal and cross-border relations. Terrorist methods and objectives are best tackled in these ways.