IT IS somewhat surprising that the figures from yesterday's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll made front page headlines in so many of yesterday morning's other newspapers. While the prominence given in this newspaper is understandable as, after all, it commissioned the poll, the fact that other editors also saw it as worthy of front page treatment suggests it was an otherwise quiet news day, writes NOEL WHELAN
It should have been a case of “move along – not much to see here”.
There are no statistically-significant shifts in the party support measured in this poll notwithstanding the fact that it has been five hectic political months since the last comparable survey.
The 2 per cent rise in Fianna Fáil’s support is within the margin of error, as are the one point shifts – both up and down – in support for other parties.
It is important not to overstate the significance of the rise in satisfaction with the Government or in the Taoiseach’s approval rating. While it will be of some comfort to Brian Cowen and his Ministers that sentiment towards them has improved, the depressing reality facing them is that only one in five people approves of the Government and only one in four is satisfied with the Taoiseach’s performance.
The significance in this poll’s numbers is that, taken together with previous polls, Fianna Fáil is still in the low 20s and Fine Gael is still measured at above 30 per cent. For 18 months now Fine Gael has maintained a substantial lead over Fianna Fáil in opinion polls. When combined with Fine Gael’s dramatic victories in last June’s local elections and the Dublin South byelection these figures confirm that there has been a large and sustainable jump in Fine Gael support.
Labour has also beaten Fianna Fáil in the last three polls. However, the figures merit further analysis. The results of last June’s local elections established that Fianna Fáil support is actually about 2 per cent or 3 per cent higher than the adjusted figures in these polls suggest, although it is still at a historic low. The same elections established that Fine Gael’s vote is slightly overstated in the polls – but only slightly. Labour support, however, is dramatically overstated in these polls. Whereas two such polls last May put Labour at over 20 per cent, its national first preference vote in the local elections a few weeks later was 14 per cent.
While Labour’s support is historically high it has not reached the dizzy heights that this poll suggests.
What is clear, however, is that Eamon Gilmore is Labour’s most important asset. In fact he is the only one of the main party leaders whose approval ratings greatly exceeded their party’s vote share.
It is necessary to be even more cautious in seeking to assess what the poll figures mean for smaller parties.
Nationally-measured support levels for Sinn Féin and the Green Party tell us little about their prospects in the small number of Dáil constituencies where they have TDs. The local elections tell us more about that, and they tell us that as of last June the Green Party was in real peril while Sinn Féin had stagnated. There is nothing to suggest that the Green Party’s fortunes have improved since. Even though they are measured as one point up in this poll, the fact that four city or county councillors have left Sinn Féin suggests that things are more difficult for them on the ground than this poll would indicate.
Cumulatively, the nudge up in Fianna Fáil’s support and in the Government and Taoiseach’s approval ratings may mean that the Government is getting some credit now for taking tough decisions. Whatever additional damage the Budget did to Fianna Fáil’s dwindling public sector support base may have been more than compensated for by some relief among other voters that at least a course to recovery has been plotted.
Overall, however, this poll does no more than confirm that the electorate holds Fianna Fáil responsible for the economic circumstances in which they find themselves. For more than 18 months now the party’s poll ratings have been shaped by this public anger. The signs from this poll are that this anger has not abated much.
The durability of governments between elections in our political system, however, is not decided by a government’s vote share in opinions polls but rather by the size of its majority in the Dáil.
This Government’s majority is now more secure than it has been at any point over the last 18 months. A renewed programme for government has been negotiated with the Green Party. The Government had comfortable majorities in the Dáil votes implementing the various Budget measures. In some of those votes they had a majority of 10. Indications this week that in the near future deputies Jim McDaid, Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon are again to be full members of the parliamentary party will further strengthen the Government’s position. Notwithstanding any difficulties Michael Lowry may soon have, or the likely loss of the seat in the Donegal South West byelection, barring “events” this Government is likely to survive.
The most significant news for the Government this week was the suggestion by John Fitzgerald of the ESRI and others that the country is likely to experience an appreciable recovery by 2012. While it still seems that Fine Gael and Labour will make up the next government, improved economic circumstances may enable Fianna Fáil to contain the damage which this weekend’s poll suggests they have already endured.