WITH THREE weeks to go to polling day, the presidential election has turned into a race between Michael D Higgins and Seán Gallagher, while Martin McGuinness is performing strongly in third place. Support for both David Norris and Gay Mitchell has imploded since the last Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll was conducted in July and Mary Davis has failed to make headway.
A number of factors have transformed the situation. Fianna Fáil decided not to contest the election; Sinn Féin called on Martin McGuinness from the Northern Ireland Executive and letters written by David Norris seeking clemency for a former partner generated major controversy. These developments caused support for Mr Norris to fall by more than half to 11 per cent.
Mr McGuinness’s surprise entry brought an impressive showing of 19 per cent, slightly behind Mr Gallagher at 20 per cent and Mr Higgins at 23 per cent. Support for Mary Davis remained steady at 12 per cent, while Fine Gael voters abandoned Gay Mitchell and transferred in sizeable chunks to Mr Higgins and Mr Gallagher. The Fine Gael candidate now attracts only 9 per cent support and his voting transfer profile is no better.
Mr McGuinness’s IRA past and letters written by Mr Norris should not, according to a majority of respondents, debar them from standing in this election. Opinion is, however, sharply divided.
Those most opposed to the candidature of Mr McGuinness are farmers, upper income earners, those over 65 years, women and Fine Gael voters. Opposition to Mr Norris contesting the election is strongest in Connacht/Ulster, among farmers, the over 50s and Fianna Fáil voters.
Apart from the dismal showing by Gay Mitchell, one of the surprises of the poll was the failure by Dana Rosemary Scallon to reconnect with her traditional support base. Back in the 1997 presidential election, she took 13 per cent of the vote. Her late entry into the race on this occasion and a lack of organisation may account for the 6 per cent she now attracts.
Mary Davis will be disappointed that her campaign failed to catch fire while that of her immediate competitor did so. In the last opinion poll, she looked more likely than Mr Gallagher to move into contention during the closing stages of the election, but that prospect has all but dissipated.
On the basis of these figures, there is some evidence of a hardening of determination within both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to block the progress of Mr McGuinness and of Sinn Féin. Support for Mr Gallagher within Fianna Fáil has leapt from 9 to 26 per cent, making him the effective party candidate, well ahead of Mary Davis.
In the same period, Mr Higgins became the candidate of choice for Fine Gael voters, with Mr Mitchell and Mr Gallagher coming second and third. If voting intentions remain stable, particularly in relation to transfers, Mr Higgins may become the next president. Early momentum can be critical but in election terms, however, the campaign has only just begun.