YESTERDAY’S ARMED attack on a police academy in Lahore claimed the lives of several police and gunmen and left nearly 100 police trainees wounded. As Pakistani Interior official Rehman Malik said, it was “a planned, organised terrorist attack”.
But by whom? It is increasingly difficult to distinguish between Pakistan’s home-grown violence and that of neighbouring Afghanistan since combined al-Qaeda and Taliban forces took over the prosperous province of Swat, only three hours north of Lahore by car, and imposed a brutal rule there, now backed up by the imposition of sharia law. More information may emerge from those captured after this attack. A lot hangs for Pakistan’s future on who those responsible represent and whether this action will rally its police and armed forces against them or not.
The deteriorating security situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan has been put centre stage by recent events, including the previous bombing attack in Lahore against the Sri Lanka cricket team and the terrorist attack on the Indian city of Mumbai. Recognising this reality, the United States-led operation against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan increasingly treats the two countries as a single theatre of war. US attacks on targets in Pakistan using drone aircraft have been a major factor driving ordinary Pakistanis towards support for extremist organisations, culminating in their takeover of Swat.
The Obama administration has fully adopted this perspective in its review of the Afghan war published last week. Pakistan worries the US now as much as Afghanistan. Mr Obama distinguishes between his main target, al-Qaeda, and the Taliban in developing his strategy for the region. Implicit in this view is the possibility of separating the two organisations, including by concentrating much more effort on US aid to build up civilian infrastructure and the rule of law in both states, rather than on exclusively military aid. Greater conditionality is being imposed on both governments as aid is increased.
That is a long-term strategy, however. In the meantime extra US troops are being committed in expectation of decisive military gains. The war is going badly and there is scant likelihood that Mr Obama will be able to convince Nato allies to send more troops during his summit meetings in Europe this week. Bombings such as this take on a greater international significance in such light. Unfortunately Lahore may not have seen the last of such atrocities.