FACED WITH the likelihood that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected president of Russia next month tens of thousands of Muscovites braved the bitter cold over the weekend to protest about corruption and demand fair elections.
They promise more such demonstrations over coming weeks in the hope of convincing the authorities to conduct a cleaner vote. The best they can expect, given Putin’s continuing appeal and their own political fragmentation, is to moderate his authoritarianism rather than prevent his return. But their efforts to revive Russian civil society speak of a new self-confidence among a stronger middle class and deserve support.
Mr Putin has been in power for 12 years now, having been prevented by term limits from standing again in the last presidential elections. His role as prime minister since then to Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency was an interlude before resuming the more powerful executive role. His popularity has waned in line with the reduction of votes secured by his United Russia party in December’s parliamentary elections; nonetheless it remains the country’s largest and best organised political grouping, while he retains broad popular support throughout the vast country, if not in Moscow. Credible reports of large- scale ballot-box stuffing last December and of state employees being told to join the weekend’s pro-Putin march there show how strong the authoritarian impulse remains but should not disguise this fact.
Explaining it requires understanding Putin’s ability to link economic buoyancy arising from the fivefold increase in oil and gas prices since he came to power with the reassertion of state power and nationalist pride after the Yeltsin years. Many Russians still warm to Putin’s rejection of the humiliations their country suffered internally and externally under Yeltsin. His skill in tarnishing critics by using compliant state-run media and the ruthless personalisation of power and wealth among his chosen security and economic elites has created a formidable bloc of support.
But it is by no means a seamless one. Diminishing economic growth, growing evidence of rampant corruption, electoral fraud and a courageous new online media have stimulated and encouraged more people to demand greater political accountability and freedom of expression. The protesters since December have not been intimidated as before and show many Russians want change and reform. They will not be easily suppressed.