During the last hours of campaigning before Super Tuesday, the candidates had shouted themselves hoarse and missed so much sleep that they sometimes seemed unsure of where they were or what they were saying. But as they trotted out their stump speeches again and again, they could console themselves with the prospect of a clearer contest after more than 24 states voted in what was effectively a national primary. McCain looks unstoppable for the Republicans (despite the loathing of conservatives) and women kept Clinton a nose ahead of Obama. Denis Stauntonreads the runes of Super Tuesday
Instead, Super Tuesday has left Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in an almost dead heat for the Democratic nomination, while Republican frontrunner John McCain must battle on against Mitt Romney and a resurgent Mike Huckabee.
McCain has the most cause to celebrate following decisive victories in the biggest states in play on Tuesday, including New York and California. He is nearly halfway towards the target of 1,191 delegate votes needed for the Republican nomination and is far ahead of his two rivals.
McCain remains a figure of deep suspicion among many conservatives and talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh are foaming at the prospect of his nomination. The party establishment is moving behind him, however, as the candidate with the best chance of winning the White House in a year that is unlikely to be kind to Republicans.
Huckabee, a former Baptist minister who declared this week that he believed in miracles, surprised everyone by winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
Huckabee's success in the South underscored McCain's failure to win over much of his party's conservative base and ensures that the former Arkansas governor can remain in the race for the long haul.
But the biggest loser of the night was Romney, who has ploughed at least $35 million of his own money into a campaign that has yielded few victories outside states where he has personal ties.
The former Massachusetts governor had hoped to unite conservatives against McCain and was confident of winning in the South and possibly pulling off an upset victory in California.
In the end, Romney won enough states to remain in the race but failed to make a breakthrough that could halt McCain's momentum. With primaries over the next two weeks that favour McCain, it is unclear how Romney can rally conservatives to stop McCain before it is too late.
If the Republican race is likely to go on for weeks, the struggle between Clinton and Obama could last for months and may not be resolved until the party's national convention in August.
Both candidates claimed victory and each had reasons to be pleased with the outcome but neither won the decisive advantage they had hoped for on Super Tuesday.
With last-minute polls showing a massive surge for Obama, his campaign was privately confident of victory in a number of big states and exit polls showed him ahead in New Jersey, Massachusetts and California. As it turned out, Clinton won all three easily, along with a thumping victory in her home state of New York.
Winning Massachusetts was especially sweet for Clinton, given that the state's two senators, Edward Kennedy and John Kerry, and governor Deval Patrick, were supporting Obama.
Obama won more states than Clinton, although many of his victories were in caucuses, which involve fewer voters than primaries and most were in smaller states.
Still, the two candidates emerged from Tuesday's contests with an almost even split of delegates and the states that vote in the next two weeks - including Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia next Tuesday - all provide fertile ground for Obama.
Clinton owes her victory in the big states to her strength among the core Democratic constituencies of women, Latinos and working class whites, with women her most reliable base of support. Latino votes were decisive in California, where Obama won a majority of white votes and they could prove valuable to Clinton again on March 4th when Texas votes.
Obama won more than 80 per cent of African-American votes and he was strongest among the young, the affluent and the college educated.
Clinton and Obama have divided the Democratic party evenly between them and the winning candidate will be the one who makes most inroads into the other's core support groups.
The signs here are good for Obama, who has seen his share of the Latino vote grow in the past two weeks and is making a strong push to win over women voters. At an Obama rally in Los Angeles this week, Oprah Winfrey reminded women that they had a right to change their minds, urging them to consider abandoning Clinton.
Obama has another important advantage in that he has raised twice as much money as Clinton in the past month, allowing him to spend lavishly on television ads and direct mail in big states like Texas and Ohio, which also votes on March 4th. Obama's strategists believe he fares best in states where he has time to campaign intensively in person and that the next contests will allow him to do that.
For her part, Clinton expects Obama to win states like Louisiana on Saturday and Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia next week. But she hopes that, between now and March 4th, voters will take another look at the candidates and choose her on the basis of her experience and competence.
If Clinton does win the nomination, it will be by such a close margin that she could come under irresistible pressure to choose Obama as her running mate. It is a ticket that would delight Democrats, although some party strategists fear that such a ground-breaking combination could be too adventurous for many Americans.
