It's all down to how Paisley will jump, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor, at St Andrews
The Scottish mist was so thick, wet and cold at the St Andrews talks' venue yesterday that although the headland on which the press were hunkered and bunkered was only 200 yards from the Fairmont golf hotel, we could not see the huge building, not even its outline.
However tomorrow evening Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and British prime minister Tony Blair fully expect a lot more clarity: they anticipate the outline of a deal that will see devolution back running in Northern Ireland, just as it is successfully operating in Scotland.
We could have three possible outcomes tomorrow evening.
The first two scenarios relate to alternative contingency deals.
The first, which London and many in the DUP believe is realisable, is the "post-dated cheque" policing/power-sharing agreement endorsed by all parties by November 24th but not actually cashed or implemented until later.
The second, which is favoured by Dublin and Sinn Féin, is where Sinn Féin will sign up to policing by November 24th contingent on a DUP guarantee to share power, also by that deadline, and that the Northern Executive and Assembly would be back and running by November 24th or November 25th.
The third possible outcome is that Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will have determined that agreement is impossible, either before the November 24th deadline or even within six months of that date.
If the last scenario is the outcome then that will be because DUP leader Ian Paisley has reverted to type and declared "no, no, no".
So, the question on every pundit's lip in St Andrews yesterday was how will the Doc jump?
In the Scottish wind and rain Dr Paisley was about as clear as the mist swirling around him.
If his words to the press are to be taken at absolute face value then it would seem he was entering a deal-breaker demand before negotiations had even begun. He said that in order to facilitate agreement Sinn Féin must support the PSNI and that the IRA must hand back any of its "ill-gotten gains".
Will the IRA hand over what is left of the £26.5 million Northern Bank robbery when it still insists it was not responsible for the heist?
And what about the millions allegedly accrued through IRA Inc down the years of the Troubles which, as one Government Minister told The Irish Times over a year ago, were now "legitimised" and virtually untouchable. Will that be returned?
Realistically, hauling in that money would seem more of a job for the PSNI and Garda, the Criminal Assets Bureau, the Assets Recovery Agency in the North, and the revenue people.
Perhaps Dr Paisley, by demanding what seems unlikely to happen, was merely engaging in some pre-talks hard-balling, a tactical piece of posturing that all parties do. Yet how can Sinn Féin and the British and Irish governments be sure?
At a pre-talks rally in Belfast on Tuesday night, Gerry Adams said Sinn Féin was "opposed to criminality of all kinds",, and that "those who profit from crime have to be effectively challenged and put out of business".
At the same rally, and when he was doorstepped at St Andrews yesterday, Mr Adams made it clear that Sinn Féin signing up to policing was achievable, and sooner rather than later if the DUP delivered a copper-fastened commitment to share power with Sinn Féin.
He refused to say if an ardfheis would be called to endorse the PSNI before the deadline but, as stated here before, that seems implicit in recent Sinn Féin comments on policing.
Sinn Féin endorsing the PSNI is one of the biggest and most elusive prizes of the peace process. Mr Adams and Martin McGuinness could probably carry an ardfheis on the issue but nothing should be taken for granted.
It was interesting, as some observers noted at the rally on Tuesday, how republicans responded warmly to most of Mr Adams's speech but were quieter - seemingly unsettled - when he appeared to be preparing them for a huge leap of faith on policing.
Adams and McGuinness appear just about capable of swinging an ardfheis on the issue but they require a reciprocal commitment from the DUP to share power. And there's the rub. Is the DUP faithful ready to see Mr McGuinness running Northern Ireland with Dr Paisley?
DUP backroom officials get very annoyed when there is talk of competing party factions. Nonetheless that appears the case: on one side your have the Peter Robinson/Jeffrey Donaldson rump which seems up for a deal; on the other the William McCrea/Jim Allister (MEP) bloc which finds the notion of sitting in government with Sinn Féin nauseating. And in the middle, oscillating between the two camps, is North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds, who some in the hardline group see as a viable challenger to Mr Robinson when the Doc decides to call it a political day.
Therefore if a deal is to be done it is Dr Paisley, who absolutely commands the allegiance of the entire party, who must sign, seal and deliver it. Agreement must happen on his watch otherwise there is danger of schism. And the inside word remains, notwithstanding his hard language and equivocation, that he just might whisper a "yes" on this occasion.
However senior DUP people say it will not be a "yes" to restored devolution by November 24th - more time is needed to convince grassroots that this is the future.
They do, however, appear amenable to the deal that London has been floating of a signed-off agreement by the deadline but actual implementation some time thereafter, possibly in the spring.
So, over today and tomorrow genuinely vital and difficult negotiations will be conducted at St Andrews: vital in determining whether Northern politicians are capable of shaping their own affairs in a devolved government, and difficult in that they confront both Sinn Féin and the DUP with challenges.
Today and tomorrow is about clearing the political mist.