Prime Minister Blair had better watch out: he's in serious danger of losing his reputation as a control freak. Two of his ministers - first Frank Dobson, now Mo Mowlam - have openly breached cabinet protocol, each going public in a defiant bid to pre-empt his expected reshuffle.
Mr Dobson, rumoured to be Mr Blair's choice to stop "Red Ken" Livingstone's attempt to become London mayor, told the Today programme he expected to remain Health Secretary for a long time.
Dr Mowlam (once similarly flagged as a candidate for the mayoralty) was thought more than happy to quit her Stormont post some months back. Now, however - in face of overt pressure from Mr David Trimble, and what she suspects is covert briefing by some of the dark forces inside Number 10 - the Secretary of State has made clear she has not yet "had her fill" of the North, and certainly does not consider her work there complete.
So will Mo go? Will she have any choice? And where might she end up? Amid the latest manoeuvres in the peace process, these were the questions exercising journalists yesterday as they counted the days to the reshuffle and the start of the holidays.
In the context of last Thursday's "crash landing" at Stormont, it is not at all difficult to make a case for Dr Mowlam's retention a while longer. From an Irish, and general nationalist perspective, Dr Mowlam has always been more critically important to the peace process than unionist comment would allow. This was true long before the general election - when she provided the assurance, much needed at the time, that Mr Blair in power would give the issue priority. Likewise in the aftermath of the second IRA ceasefire, and through the long negotiations, when Mr Blair's role was so often to hold Mr Trimble's hand.
Similarly now - as the process goes into review, and the final prospects for going live with the executive and other institutions threaten to overlap with the Patten report - Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein will be especially watchful for any policy tilt in Mr Trimble's favour.
In the same context, it is perfectly understandable that Dr Mowlam should resent Mr Trimble's calls for her removal, and be anxious that any move - no matter how rational or logical in the context of mainstream British politics - might be seen as a concession to unionism.
Mr Blair, presumably, would be similarly anxious not to send the wrong signal or have a Mowlam move misjudged or misinterpreted, but this is not the whole context in which the prime minister will ultimately make his decision. Nor is he likely to have much regard to any personal angst which might incline Dr Mowlam to dig in her heels lest Peter Mandelson, of all people, be seen to ride in at the last, work his reputed magic and help claim victory from the jaws of threatened defeat.
A number of factors will presumably weigh with Mr Blair. First, the question of fairness to Mo herself. Her brain tumour struck long before the 1997 election. She has had no let-up since. She might be considered to have earned a move. Moreover, she is one of Labour's biggest assets (even if, as she may now reflect, a certain risk attaches to being considered more popular even than Mr Blair).
Second, as she remarked on Monday, even assuming all goes well this autumn, the North is going to take years to finally settle. She can hardly want or expect to stay in perpetuity. Mr Blair certainly cannot continue to devote such priority to Northern Ireland, with his government past mid-term and the next election already hovering into view. Hence the argument for Mr Mandelson.
One fancies David Trimble might come to regret the day he jokingly offered the former sultan of spin as his preferred option. There are good grounds for thinking the unionists might come to detest him as heartily as they do Dr Mowlam. Indeed she would be the first to say (witness Paddy Mayhew, et al) that nothing is more assured in Northern Irish politics. Certainly Mr Mandelson would have to leave behind those particular talents - for backstage intrigue, party politicking and the like - which have caused him and New Labour such grief, if he is to establish trust with plain-dealing Ulstermen of whatever variety.
However, none of those considerations affect the fundamental arguments in favour of a Mandelson appointment. He already knows a fair bit about Ireland and its politics, and presumably updated himself on a visit to Belfast while Minister without Portfolio. That he is highly intelligent and extremely able is not in doubt. He is also well-regarded by the prime minister, would thus have his ear and could therefore carry the load to a degree that, certainly of late, has not been possible for Dr Mowlam.
Moreover, the unfolding script could hardly serve Mr Mandelson better had he written it himself. Assuming plans for his return to the front line can prevail against the assumed opposition of Gordon Brown and John Prescott, he plainly doesn't want to revert to his earlier party campaigning role. Northern Ireland on the other hand - especially given the failure of last week - would be a real job, carrying real challenge and real risk, not to mention (still) the real possibility of success.
"Peter's Penance"is how some unnamed sources have been talking-up Mr Mandelson's chances, and the point is clear. But hey, penance? Have they not noticed that the Belfast job brings with it a big house - well, castle actually, out at Hillsborough. The neighbours might not be quite up to Notting Hill standards, but friends and celebs can always be imported for the duty weekends. And there's absolutely no mortgage requirement. Sorry Peter, only joking . . .