Syria's military withdrawal from Lebanon, which was formally completed yesterday, is a major development - and a welcome one for the Lebanese and the Middle East region as a whole. It is also quite unexpected, from any perspective, seen from before the popular former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated by a huge bomb in Beirut on February 15th.
This atrocity was almost universally blamed on Syrian agents and it has had profoundly negative consequences for their 29-year-old presence in Lebanon. Immediately there was a huge mobilisation throughout the country in favour of Syrian withdrawal, together with sharply increased international pressure.
Those more positively disposed to them, such as the Shia Hizbullah movement,were put on the defensive, even as they too mobilised. Suddenly the extensive networks of political clientelism, intelligence services, confessional sectarianism and corruption which sustained Syria's role collapsed in disarray, leaving its leaders little option but to disengage.
Military withdrawal does not mean a complete loss of Syrian influence over Lebanese affairs. The two states were originally carved out of one entity by French colonialism, while their separate but intertwined development since then created many additional human, economic and cultural links.
Syrian influence will continue indirectly and covertly. But it will now have to come to terms with a greater sense of Lebanese identity and belonging among the small state's 18 confessional sects and the complex power-sharing structure between them. Syria's direct intervention in 1976 prevented a decisive defeat for Lebanon's Christian Maronites in the civil war that lasted until 1990.
Rafik Hariri's success in rebuilding the country since then enjoyed widespread support across its political and religious divides - a spirit which has been resurrected after his death, much to the disadvantage of the Syrian regime.
Elections are due by the end of May, to be organised by interim prime minister Najib Mikati, who must act fast to meet that deadline. They will be held under the existing political structure of confessional power-sharing; as yet there is little sign that it will be reorganised, although there is a greater willingness to co-operate among previously hostile parties and groups.
Syria's withdrawal could foreshadow other changes in the region. Events in Iraq and Iran have a profound impact on Lebanon. Any progress made in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will also be felt there. Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon eases tension all round.