GOVERNMENT STABILITY has received a damaging jolt, caused by the defection of two TDs from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party. Following the hammering received by the Coalition parties in the local and European elections, Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon are unlikely to do anything that will bring down the Government in the short term. But events have a habit of creating their own political momentum. And this development has caused further damage to the authority and leadership of Taoiseach Brian Cowen.
Technically, the Government no longer has a majority in the Dáil. But that may mean little because of special arrangements that have been made with Independent TDs for their support and because three out of four former Fianna Fáil TDs remain on as party members. Still, as exchequer revenues continue to fall and the need for radical cuts in Government spending become more acute, nothing can be taken for granted. The only certainty is that, if our economic prospects are to be salvaged, a large number of unpopular and painful decisions have to be taken. If discipline within Fianna Fáil cannot be maintained on a local issue, what prospect is there of ensuring compliance on fundamental concerns?
In normal circumstances, a long holiday leading into October would help to settle Coalition nerves. But the Dáil is to be recalled next month to debate the terms of legislation setting up the National Asset Management Agency (Nama). In view of public antipathy to the banking sector and criticisms of the proposed legislation from the Opposition parties, no comfort will be found there. The situation is further complicated by a Green Party decision to renegotiate the programme for government. Any changes to that programme will require support from a two-thirds majority of Green Party members at a special conference. And, before that, the Government will have to ensure the passage of a second Lisbon referendum on October 2nd.
Mr Cowen is facing into a range of challenges, the most important of which will involve the content of the December budget and a correction of the public finances. It is not yet clear whether he has the finely honed skills and the political temperament needed to surmount them. His style has tended to be direct and brusque, rather than oblique or accommodating. And he has displayed a strong stubborn streak. These attributes can be useful in tough times, but only when combined with strong leadership traits.
Fine Gael and the Labour Party have been invited to make inputs to Nama legislation and a recovery programme in the Dáil. On the basis of recent behaviour, however, both parties are likely to maintain a largely traditional, confrontational approach. Because of a growing hostility to politics and politicians, however, that may not serve. The public interest demands that difficult choices are made in recapitalising banks and correcting the Government’s finances. If the Opposition parties wish to impress, they should present themselves as a creative part of the solution rather than as part of the problem.