Fianna Fail's prolonged hold on power is the main reason for the succession of political scandals which has sapped public confidence in politics. Never before was there a greater need for a vibrant and credible alternative government. Despite all the scandals and controversies over recent years, even on the occasions when Fianna Fail dipped in the polls the Fine Gael ratings remained low.
Fianna Fail's many difficulties were never turned into Fine Gael's opportunity. Moreover, the slippage away from the main parties is more pronounced in Fine Gael than in Fianna Fail or Labour. In the most recent MRBI poll, published in The Irish Times on Friday, 24 per cent turned to smaller parties or to Independents, rather than to Fine Gael. Why are the Greens, the PDs and "Others" gaining votes as Fine Gael continues to lose them?
It is true no decision should ever be based on one opinion poll, but to ignore the trend of a series of opinion polls is to bury one's head in the sand. One unbroken trend for the past three years is the low satisfaction rating of John Bruton. Fine Gael has gone through a long, dark tunnel as a result in direct contrast to the bright days of Garret FitzGerald's leadership. A leader does matter.
Under Liam Cosgrave's leadership Fine Gael's percentage share of the vote averaged in the mid30s. Garret brought that to an all-time high of 40 per cent. Now the opinion polls are showing the party with a core vote of only 15 per cent. When "Don't Knows" are distributed this goes to 18 per cent and now, under a new arrangement, MRBI gives Fine Gael a bonus which they estimate as 2 per cent, bringing us to a total of 20 per cent.
Twenty per cent of the votes would yield approximately 20 per cent of 166 seats, which means 33 seats or a drop of 21 seats on Fine Gael's present total of 54. And as your percentage falls, the chances of getting more seats than your share diminishes.
Thus the chances of Fianna Fail remaining in power after the next general election increases because of Fine Gael's weakness. Many Fianna Fail supporters claim John Bruton is a better asset to them than Bertie Ahern.
John Bruton has held the leadership of Fine Gael for over 10 years, as long as Garret FitzGerald. He has had his chance and now he should move on. I say this with deep regret as I have been defending him right up to last week.
However, for a very long period we have been in the same position as a government defending a weak currency. You can do it for so long but in the end the market dictates and devaluation becomes unavoidable. Regretfully, John Bruton is like a weak currency which can no longer be propped up.
Weak as the Bruton currency is throughout the country, in Dublin it is weaker than the Russian rouble. The 11 per cent vote recorded in last week's poll for Fine Gael in Dublin would yield us only five seats, down from 12, which is already very low. Fine Gael is the third party in Dublin and is only barely holding a lead over the Greens. Soon we could be fourth.
This need not be. In the last two European elections (one held as recently as 18 months ago) Mary Banotti and I received more than 30 per cent of the votes, making us not fourth but first. If John Bruton was a popular leader our vote would have been even higher.
Here is a case where the leader gets a bounce from good candidates rather than the candidates getting a bonus from their leader. The real measure is the poster test. In how many Dail constituencies are the party election strategists using the leader's poster? The fact is few are printed and most will be left in the boots of cars.
It is important for me to emphasise that changing our leader is only a first step. Much more remains to be done.
Firstly, the front bench and parliamentary party must be inspired and motivated by the new leader. There is great talent on the front bench but their potential is not being realised because of what I see as John Bruton's style and his excessive democratic centralism. The Fine Gael back benches have more young talent than the other parties combined. Gerry Reynolds and John Perry from Sligo-Leitrim are a case in point. Michael Ring from Mayo is a class act. Michael Creed, Paul Bradford, David Stanton and Simon Coveney from Cork are a formidable group. John Farrelly from Meath and Billy Timmins in Wicklow are bright and energetic.
When added to the three young deputies, Brian Hayes, Deirdre Clune and Denis Naughten, who are on our front bench, it can be readily seen how much talent we have. When added to the formidable ministerial track records on our front bench one has to wonder why Fine Gael is where it is, namely in the doldrums.
It all comes back to John Bruton's style and "modus operandi". In summing up John Bruton seven years ago I described his problem as suffering from a "charisma deficit". Regrettably, that remains true. But more than that, he has a depressant effect on his colleagues. He is big into control. John Bruton's Fine Gael suffers from an excess of democratic centralism. I have told John this many times and I also told him this was the very disease that killed communism and was now killing Fine Gael. From the Ardfheis to the National Executive, from the front bench to the back benches, from party HQ to the press office, everything is managed by John Bruton.
This has stifled initiative at all levels within the party. What Fine Gael needs more than anything is to be liberated from excessive centralised control. The creativity and talent that is so abundant in our party should be encouraged and unleashed rather than controlled and repressed. Moreover, processes of real consultation within the party must be established rather than the "pretend" consultations John Bruton engages in. That is to say, when a decision is already made, people are called and "consulted". John Bruton almost certainly does not realise this is his methodology.
This method gives most of his colleagues the feeling they have no real role to play and it is not surprising they do not play it. Changing the leader and liberating the party will, in my belief, give Fine Gael the boost it so badly needs.