DRAPIER/An Insider's Guide to Politics: Back in November 2000, on the evening of the American presidential election, Bill Clinton's man in Dublin, Mike Sullivan, gave a party in the Round Room of the Mansion House. It was THE place to be in Dublin that night and just about every politician, businessman, journalist and hanger-on showed up to watch the big screen and enjoy Uncle Sam's munificent hospitality
Just for fun (mar dhea), mock ballot papers were issued to all the guests, dutifully completed and put in ballot boxes to be counted later.
Al Gore won by a landslide. George Bush came a poor third, trailing Ralph Nader, the septuagenarian Green who cost Gore the real election on the other side of the Atlantic.
Truth is that people in Leinster House don't like George and never have. His rhetoric is too shrill, his horizon too low, his friends too nasty. And these days you will search long and hard in Leinster House before you meet anyone who is comfortable with the noises coming out of Washington.
Which is not to say that Bertie and the boys aren't onside for whatever George wants. Brian Cowen told us during the week that the Government believes that another UN resolution is needed to allow George B. to unleash the cruise missiles. He carefully avoided telling us what the Government would do if the Americans and the British go it alone. He didn't need to. Everyone in here knows that Bertie will do nothing to upset the White House.
Bertie knows that he may need George to make a call to the Shinners in the near future and little things like world peace won't be allowed to get in the way.
Strangely enough the Shinners don't seem to feel equally constrained in their attitude to the war. Caoimhín Ó Caoláin happily beat the anti-war drum in the Dáil and seemed utterly unperturbed by heckling from Brian Cowen, John Bruton and Willie O'Dea, all of them keen to point out that Saddam wasn't the only guy who needed a dose of disarmament.
Fine Gael has been strangely quiet about the war. You can't help feeling that the loss of the social democratic wing last year is making itself felt. The official line was spelt out by Enda Kenny and Gay Mitchell in the Dáil debate.
Fine Gael will probably support a war if the UN gives it the go ahead, but will oppose a war without a second UN resolution. Whatever about the official line, the only issue which really animated the Fine Gael lads in recent weeks was the potential loss of business to Shannon if the Americans stopped using it.
The left is unusually united in its opposition to the possibility of war.
Labour was all over the shop on the last Gulf war and dithered when the Americans took out the Taliban. The meanderings of Michel D. when NATO bombed Kosovo were embarrassing. But now Michael D has returned to complete moral certainty and for once he has the backing of his party, including Pat Rabbitte, who obviously sees the possibility of electoral advantage in his party's stance.
Today will see the biggest street protest against American foreign policy since Eamonn Casey and the nuns ambushed Ronnie Reagan back in the 80s. It's only a few years since Bill Clinton was feted by tens of thousands on the streets. How quickly things change.
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At last we have an opinion poll, the first in what seems like a long time. FF was expecting bad news and most of them are not that put out by the result, bad as it is. The pay cheque is safe for a few more years and the public's memory is short. The only bit that really hurts is Bertie's own standing. Could it be that the public is getting bored?
Fine Gael is mightily relieved. The party's self-confidence is at an all-time low and any improvement in poll numbers is manna from heaven. The real problem is that Enda Kenny still isn't doing it for them although few people seem to actively dislike him. Enda is a bit like the McElhenny twins. He's good craic and he looks good but is he really up to it?
Labour's ratings are OK but the new leadership was hoping for better. This is Rabbitte's first poll and he will have mixed feelings about the result. He is about as popular as Ruairí Quinn was and is doing a lot better than Enda Kenny. But a strangely large number of people don't seem to know who he is.
The Greens are a little worried and the Shinners are sort of happy but most of us are conscious of the fact that nearly a quarter of the public don't know or don't care and in any event it's early days.
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The partnership talks are grinding on next door in Government Buildings. Most TDs have mixed feelings about the whole business. We know that partnership is a good thing but it really grates to see Joe O'Toole and Sean Healy sorting out the problems of the nation as we do our best to sort out a headage payment or a medical card.
At this stage a deal seems inevitable. The unions and IBEC have done the business and nobody cares all that much whether the farmers or the VdP are on board. The deal is all about industrial peace, and Bertie can live with a few tractor protests if needs be.
For his part, Charlie McCreevy isn't all that bothered whether there is an agreement or not. One thing is sure. He has had his fill of troublesome priests and the "poverty lobby" and if they decide to walk away Charlie will hold the door open as they leave.
If the deal is done it will more than likely pass but only because Charlie has played a blinder with benchmarking. He bought the last agreement with a promise to do a report on benchmarking and he will buy the new deal with a promise to implement the report. Clever politics. Clever but expensive.