NEWT GINGRICH may well have been, as they say in the South, “whupped good and proper” in Florida, but the former speaker ain’t giving up yet. Yesterday, the man who has made “comeback” his middle name, defiantly insisted the Republican primaries were still a two-horse race across 46 more states.
Although Florida is actually only the second state he has captured so far, former governor Mitt Romney’s front-runner standing has been enormously strengthened by the 14-point margin by which he defeated Gingrich 10 days after a stinging loss to him in South Carolina. Support in Florida’s urban areas from affluent and older Republicans was enough to overcome Tea Party, white evangelical, and self-described “very conservative” voters who united around Gingrich in South Carolina. Above all, Romney restored very firmly his lead among the primary voters, half of voters in Florida, who say the most important quality in a candidate is an ability to defeat Barack Obama.
Mitt Romney has proved one other thing in Florida – that when it comes to fighting dirty, he can mix it with the best. Many Republicans thought he didn’t have the stomach for a real fight, but, a $16 million statewide advertising blitz later – overall, 92 per cent of the ads from candidates and outside groups were negative – and with ammunition aplenty from Newt Gingrich’s colourful past, no one can be in any real doubt now.
Romney’s problem is that his own profile has also taken more than one hit as the campaign got personal, wounds that will certainly be reopened with a vengeance if and when he has to face Mr Obama. Clearly Floridians were not put off by his fabulous wealth, or the paltry tax he pays, or the depictions of him as a heartless capitalist asset-stripper at Bain Capital.
A national electorate will be less forgiving.
“Should Mr Gingrich remain a viable enough candidate to stay in the race through the summer,” the New York Times also warns, “Mr Romney could be forced to maintain an angry edge that could undermine his appeal among moderate and independent voters.”
He should face a relatively easy February, with a 17-day break after the caucuses over the next week in Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota, and before Arizona and Michigan primaries at the end of the month.
All should be winnable. Romney has the money and a strong organisation on the ground. It is only next month that, with Super Tuesday, the race returns to “Comeback” Gingrich’s home territory, the South.