Fianna Fáil sees its support climb as Sinn Féin watches its numbers fall, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
The Government's make-over has had an enduring effect. After two years of poor poll performances after the 2002 general election, there was much punditry suggesting that the Coalition was permanently damaged as a result of the public belief that it broke election promises.
But since last year's local elections, a series of changes in image and in tone has brought a dramatic revival in support for the Government, and the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil. There was a Cabinet reshuffle, a Budget sold as caring and socially conscious, and much talk of listening to the voters.
From a position 18 months ago when Fianna Fáil at 30 per cent was scoring its lowest rating since 1926, the year of its foundation, the party is now at 38 per cent and would almost certainly have been returned to power for a third term had an election taken place this week.
It is very unclear, however, with whom it would have returned to government. The current Coalition would be short of the support required. In the May 2002 general election, Fianna Fáil won 41.5 per cent of the vote, compared to 38 per cent in this poll. Had a general election taken place this week, it would have lost seats.
The Progressive Democrats, meanwhile, have dropped a statistically insignificant percentage point to 3 per cent. Satisfaction with the performance of Ms Harney as party leader has fallen seven points to 47 per cent. As always with a small party, it is performances in a small number of individual constituencies rather than the national figure which will determine how the party does in the next election. But on these figures, Fianna Fáil and the PDs would fall short.
If Fianna Fáil is to seek another coalition partner, it is highly unlikely to be Sinn Féin. Dermot Ahern's pre-Christmas prediction of Sinn Féin entry to government seems less realistic than ever in the wake of the new establishment attitude to that party. And as all other Dáil parties unite to denounce and ostracise Sinn Féin, there are now signs that party support is suffering. Last night's announcement by Mr Gerry Adams that he is to pass the names of seven people expelled from Sinn Féin in the wake of the McCartney killing to the Police Ombudsman, Ms Nuala O'Loan, is a sign that Sinn Féin knows it is under pressure.
The last Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll in January showed Sinn Féin support remaining remarkably resilient despite the sustained attacks on that party over the Northern Bank raid, the collapse of the Northern talks and the campaign for the early release of the killers of Det Garda Jerry McCabe.
While the approval of Gerry Adams as Sinn Féin leader fell from 51 per cent to 42 per cent since October 2004 - before the Northern Bank raid and the collapse of the Northern talks - party support fell by a statistically insignificant one percentage point to 11 per cent.
However, this latest poll sees Sinn Féin losing a further two points to 9 per cent. It has lost a quarter of its support since October last. The murder of Robert McCartney and the discovery of a major money-laundering operation in the Republic undoubtedly contributed to this loss, as did the continuing criticism over the Northern Bank raid and the continuing publicity concerning the McCabe killers.
This is a notable decline, but far from a collapse. At 9 per cent, Sinn Féin is still registering support levels higher than it achieved in the 2002 general election.
The most dramatic change is the collapse in approval for Mr Adams. He has scored his lowest rating since TNS/mrbi started measuring his support, and is the most disapproved-of party leader for several years.
Just 30 per cent think he is doing a good job; some 52 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance; and 18 per cent have no opinion.
So on these figures the PDs wouldn't have the numbers, while current political reality dictates that Sinn Féin entry into government is out of the question.
Which brings us to Labour. Pat Rabbitte's determination to forge a pre-election alliance with Fine Gael, and to rule out any post-election coalition with Fianna Fáil, means there would be internal convulsions in Labour if that party was to join the largest party in government.
Mr Rabbitte's hope is that if and when a pre-election deal is done between Fine Gael and Labour, the combination will seize the voters' imagination, rendering such internal convulsions unnecessary. At the moment, however, the news for the potential Fine Gael-Labour alternative government is not encouraging.
Support for both parties remains static. Fine Gael is at 22 per cent, the same figure it achieved in January's poll and in its disastrous 2002 general election campaign. Even if one accepts the claim that opinion polls understate Fine Gael support, it is a long way short of the 28-29 per cent it would need to have a chance of leading the next government.
Labour has slipped one statistically insignificant point since January to 12 per cent. But that is its lowest figure since achieving 11 per cent in the May 2002 general election.
More worryingly for Labour, its support has slipped steadily over the course of eight opinion polls from 22 per cent in May 2003 to 12 per cent now.
With some luck there could be a gain of a seat or two for the party if it replicated this in the next general election: on a bad day it could lose a seat or two.
For the first time Enda Kenny has caught up with Pat Rabbitte's personal satisfaction rating, with 45 per cent of voters approving of the performance of each. Satisfaction with the leaders of the two Government parties is higher than that with the two main opposition parties.
The only winner in this poll is the disparate group of Independents. Their support has gone up to 12 per cent, up four points since January and their highest rating since before the 2002 general election.
There is logic to this, in that those who have left the ranks of Sinn Féin voters - and the small number who have moved away from Labour - are more likely to vote for an Independent than for an establishment party.
Some 13 Independents were elected last time on 11 per cent of the vote. There is a reasonable chance that the same number - or more - would be returned next time.
So the Taoiseach may be faced with a PD party that hasn't enough TDs to give him a stable majority, a Sinn Féin party that nobody will touch with a barge pole, and a convulsed Labour Party unsure of whether it can abandon a "no coalition with Fianna Fáil" commitment.
If so, the presence in the Dáil of a dozen Independents, many anxious to win favours for their constituencies in exchange for their support, will give him an extra option.