The Spanish prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, is proving anything but predictable. Fifteen months ago he was seen as a rather weak and very inexperienced leader of the opposition Socialist Party (PSOE). Most observers thought he was very unlikely to oust the conservative Partido Popular (PP).
His election victory in March 2004 was fuelled by public disgust at the PP's appalling mishandling of the Islamist bombings three days before polling day. Immediately, however, Mr Zapatero made a decisive impact by declaring that he would honour his election promise to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq.
His decision to embark on a peace process in the Basque Country takes him into even more difficult waters. Eta's terrorist campaign in pursuit of Basque independence, and a vaguely defined form of socialism, has claimed more than 800 victims since 1968. The group has become a political pariah, even in its own heartlands.
Its ending of the 1998/9 ceasefire caused bitter disillusionment. The renewed killing of academics, journalists and minor politicians put it beyond the pale of democratic discourse in the view of most citizens. Subsequent tough anti-terrorist laws, which Mr Zapatero backed from opposition despite the concerns of human rights organisations, have greatly undermined Eta's military infrastructure, but have failed to erode its core support.
It became clear this year that the Spanish Constitutional Court was not willing to continue to rubber-stamp the banning of all political parties close to the thinking of Eta. Mr Zapatero allowed one of these parties to contest last month's Basque elections. The results showed, once again, there is a pro-independence political constituency which has to be drawn into democratic politics. Since then, Mr Zapatero has offered Eta "dialogue", on the precondition that it abandons violence for good. There are indications that Eta will respond positively.
The PP's implacable hostility to his strategy this week shattered the Spanish parliament's long-standing bipartisanship on terrorist issues. It is understandable that the conservatives should be taken aback by Mr Zapatero's sea change. They are correct to remind him that similar endeavours have foundered on Eta's duplicity in the past. The PP's intemperate language, however, reminds many Spaniards of their authoritarian origins. And their apparent desire that Mr Zapatero should fail, and that they should reap the fruits of such failure, makes their exclusive claim to patriotism sound hollow. True patriotism will seek an inclusive resolution of the Basque conflict but there is no doubt it will be a most arduous task.