In a skilful feat of campaigning President Yeltsin has emerged from the first round of the Russian presidential elections with a narrow lead over his Communist rival, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, and in a strong position to win the second round next month. As he reflects on these results the great question is whether he will learn the political lessons of his narrow lead - chiefly that he is preferred more for his ability to keep the Communists out than for his own record in office. The substantial shift towards him during the campaign demonstrates that many Russian voters are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in response to an improved performance, as well as to the heavy media bias mobilised in his support.
The last five years have been deeply troubled for many Russians, as reforms introduced by shock therapy traumatised many economic sectors and cost millions of people their secure livelihoods. Many millions of others have either gained from the changes or are prepared to give them a further period of implementation. But the results demonstrate that the disadvantageous social effects of the economic reforms are of paramount interest to those who supported Mr Zyuganov.
So are fears that Russia has lost its national pride and position as a great power. And running through all the campaigning is the theme of a civilised democratic political culture, which is far from being achieved. The blatant way in which the executive controlled access to the media, combined with an apparent indifference of many journalists to such manipulation because they support those orchestrating it, are troubling indications of how far there is to go in establishing such a culture. Election observers from the European Union and the Organisation for Security and Co operation in Europe expressed clear reservations along these lines.
The next few weeks will see an intensive lobbying of the minority candidates by the two main camps, a process which started yesterday as Mr Yeltsin had a meeting with General Alexander Lebed, whose performance makes him the main swing vote for the final round. He started out in the classic military nationalist mould, standing on a simplistic platform of law and order, but appears to have moved towards the centre in the course of the campaign, to the point now that he is willing to treat seriously with Mr Yeltsin. But if he does, how will Mr Yeltsin respond to the likely demand that the authoritarian loyalists surrounding him, including the discredited General Pavel Grachev, his Minister for Defence, be stripped of power? Mr Yeltsin could face an invidious choice between loyalists and power if he wants to remain in office - assuming he can command majority support next month, which on this showing is far from certain.
If events force him to make such a choice and if he wins the second round of voting there is a possibility that Russia could emerge from these elections with a more mature administration to oversee the continuation of the economic reforms that have been the central focus of this campaign. This would be a great relief to Russia's international partners in the reform project. But they should also learn the international lessons of the campaign. Taking Russian leaders for granted as economic reform and strategic changes are introduced could rebound badly on Western leaders.