European Union institutions and policies reflect and represent public opinion at national and European levels of politics. In the 27 member-states and in the current competitions for the 720 seats in the European Parliament these electoral contests promise to be particularly consequential this year. There is a definite shift towards harder right-wing parties which will affect how the different political groups in the parliament relate to one another. That in turn will influence bargaining on leadership positions and policies in key areas like climate and immigration when the results are in.
Ahead of the voting over next weekend there are several signs of change in the dynamics between centrist and right-wing groups in the parliament. A strong convention between the social democrat, Christian democrat and liberal groups not to bargain with the hard- and far-right parties is under real pressure following Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s reaching out to the Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni for future support. Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party is a member of the European Conservatives and Reformist (ECR) group, hitherto shunned by the centrists, and is now bidding for an ambitious enlarged right-wing coalition to lead the EU.
Von der Leyen’s task is complicated by a competing appeal for Meloni’s support from Marine Le Pen, leader of the French Rassemblement National, a member of the parliament’s far-right Identity and Democracy group. That offer is not reciprocated by Meloni and it remains to be seen if these parties and groups will reconfigure after the elections. They have neo-fascist roots but are enjoying greater support from voters disenchanted with the existing range of policies and who are certainly not convinced that centrist proposals for greater sovereign, fiscal and foreign and defence policies at European level will address their interests and concerns.
A major strategic choice faces the centrist bloc in these circumstances. They may not be able to hold on to their existing commitment to shun these new right-wing forces. The new Dutch coalition is the seventh EU government to include them and polling shows they may secure many more seats in the European Parliament. A governing majority requires at least 361 seats and von der Leyen is determined to secure that number. Despite the growing consensus across centrist parties that the EU needs to reshape and enhance its collective powers, these groups have failed to deliver programmes of change capable of attracting more popular support.
That is likely to make future EU policy-making really uncertain after the voting, at least until the political bargaining concludes. The usual trade-offs between national, geographic, policy and gender concerns face a new right-wing challenge. The old order in the EU is under threat.