The deepening intensity and destructiveness of Israel's attack on Lebanon over the past week, together with Hizbullah's continuing capacity for rocket attacks, has made an immediate ceasefire all the more essential but much more difficult to achieve.
In deciding to launch extensive land operations in southern Lebanon last week the Israeli government sharply increased the stakes in the conflict. It cannot withdraw from this new occupation of Lebanese territory without being able to hand over control to an international force. But this makes negotiating a mandate for a force that does not simply replicate the Israeli presence more complex and contentious.
The formula being discussed at the UN Security Council would see a cessation of hostilities being accompanied or followed by a statement of principles about a settlement and then a resolution setting out the terms of agreement and the mandate for an international force. The sequencing and substance are hotly contested, as Lebanon, the Arab League and Israel seek to amend the draft resolution tabled by France and the United States.
Issues involved include the disarmament and removal of Hizbullah from the border region with Israel; the return of those captured; the composition of an international force; the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory; the role of the Lebanese government; mechanisms to resolve war crimes and violations of international humanitarian law during the fighting; compensation for the huge damage done to the Lebanese economy and infrastructure and how to rebuild it. Just to list them is to realise the enormity of the task involved and the huge difficulty in settling these issues before the fighting stops. It may well intensify before agreement is reached.
That is why international pressure must be kept up to secure an immediate ceasefire linked to a mechanism for the negotiation of these many substantive issues. Normally it is not possible to achieve more at the diplomatic table than on the battlefield. Hizbullah has shown itself to be a much more formidable enemy than the Israeli Defence Forces expected. For it simply to survive is to proclaim victory, both in Lebanon and in Arab popular opinion. And unless Hizbullah goes along with the resolution it will not be possible to secure agreement on an international force.
This conflict will not be settled without a comprehensive effort to resolve its underlying cause, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Efforts by Israel to destroy Hizbullah have failed since the movement was born in the effort to crush Palestinian resistance to Israel based in Lebanon in the early 1980s. Tragically, this latest vicious war has made the effort to tackle its root cause more difficult to attain. Much of the blame must lie with the Bush administration, which refused to rein in the Israeli government three weeks ago. EU powers should take up the task of providing external pressure and support for a renewed peace effort. But to do so they will need to show greater determination and unity than has so far been the case.
