Dangers Of The Endgame

Sinn Fein may feel bruised, facing a two-week ejection from the peace talks. But they have compensations

Sinn Fein may feel bruised, facing a two-week ejection from the peace talks. But they have compensations. From Mr Gerry Adams's wounded outrage in front of the media at Dublin Castle, to the street theatre at the Four Courts, the party has basked in positive publicity beyond its expectations. At the beginning of the week its fate seemed clear and its punishment condign. Members of the armed group of which it is the political obverse had carried out two brutal murders on the streets of Belfast. Anyone with half an ear to the ground could pinpoint the IRA unit which had committed the murders. Well-informed sources could even put likely names to the triggermen. The Chief Constable's assessment was supported by the Garda Commissioner, a confirmation which can hardly have been welcomed in Government Buildings.

Six days later, Sinn Fein has successfully cast itself in the role of victim, drawing on a lexicon which many had thought obsolete to paint its critics as collaborators and worse. The Chief Constable's integrity has been assailed and by extension that of the Garda Commissioner and the Cabinet. All this against the background of the hoary mantra: Sinn Fein is not the IRA, the IRA is not Sinn Fein. Mr Adams and his senior colleagues do not care to give answers to the core questions. Why did the IRA commit these murders at this particular time? Were they sanctioned by the top echelons of the organisation and why? And if Sinn Fein were to remain in the talks how could they offer an assurance that the IRA would not simply step up its killing rate, emboldened by the knowledge that its political wing would suffer no penalties?

It is not difficult to understand the desire to find a way of rescuing Sinn Fein from the penalty of expulsion. Early in the week they issued a chilling warning of what could happen if their paramilitary colleagues found the political pathway blocked. It is impossible to predict what may happen even during the proposed short period of decontamination. But while other participants to the talks and outside commentators can entertain the possibility of a fudge, the two Governments cannot do so. A process is in train which is grounded on the principle that violence and politics cannot ride side by side. If Sinn Fein stays in the talks when their paramilitary counterparts kill two, why should they not remain if they kill another four, or eight or twelve?

It becomes clear as the process reaches what Senator George Mitchell describes as "the endgame", that renewed efforts will be made to destabilise it by elements which have no interest in its success. There are forces at work in both communities which would prefer to have the process break up, followed by a return to widespread terror and killing. While expressing the belief that an agreement is still possible by the May deadline, Senator Mitchell warned of possible future actions - "more drastic and extreme" - which would make it difficult not only to reach an agreement but even to discuss issues, to negotiate.

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There is a certain irony, as Mary Holland wrote in this newspaper on Thursday that the Mitchell Principles which were originally designed to enable the parties to overcome traditional objections and to sit together, could in this phase of the process be exploited to prevent talks taking place at all. The Principles cannot be jettisoned. But they may have to be applied differently. The two Governments, the Chairman and his colleagues will have to do some hard thinking as to future tactics and procedures. It may be that new and imaginative responses may have to be applied if there are further attempts, through violence, by malevolent elements - such as last night's bomb attack on Moira RUC station - to make it impossible for parties to remain at the talks. The willingness of the parties to prove their bona fides by distancing themselves unequivocally from any such violence may be critically important. In all the rumpus of the past week, Sinn Fein could not bring itself to condemn the IRA's murders.