With less than nine months to go to a general election, political tension within the Coalition Government and on the opposition benches is increasing as the various parties seek to gain political advantage. The resumption of the Dβil at Leinster House yesterday provided indications of what may lie ahead as the main opposition parties anticipated a rapid economic slow-down and accused the Government of failing to invest adequately in health, housing and social services when large tax surpluses were available.
The change of tone, since the Dβil rose for the summer recess in early July, was striking. Back then, a downturn in the United States' economy had begun and a number of jobs had been lost here in related high-tech sectors. But nothing had prepared people for the depth and severity of the ensuing industrial shake-out, following the awful events of September 11th.
Last Tuesday, for the third quarter in succession, the Department of Finance slashed its forecast for tax revenues and predicted a reduction of more than 60 per cent in the surplus anticipated in last December's budget. The situation may deteriorate further. The global downturn has dampened consumer spending; agriculture is suffering residual effects from outbreaks of foot and mouth and BSE, while earnings from tourism are depressed by the near-collapse of the US market.
In this climate, Ministers drawing up their spending estimates for next year have been instructed not to include any new schemes or programmes that would cost extra money. And when the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, delivers his Budget on December 5th, it is likely to be very different from the give-away, pre-election package so fondly anticipated by Fianna Fβil backbenchers last year.
The rapidity of change in the political landscape was further emphasised when, on the day before the Dail resumed, the Government announced its intention to hold an abortion referendum. The initiative immediately exposed the fault lines of the failed 1992 referendum and threatened a divisive public debate spanning five months. Yesterday, the legal mechanism being used by the Government was challenged as unconstitutional by the Labour Party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, supported by Mr Michael Noonan of Fine Gael. They asked the Taoiseach to publish his legal advice on the matter. Given the importance of the issue and the potential for public confusion, Mr Ahern should oblige.
As the general election draws near, Ministers will become anxious to pass key pieces of legislation. In that regard, the Electoral Bill, dealing with corporate funding and political spending, will have to be reintroduced. The Road Traffic Bill, which is concerned with penalty points for driving offences, is urgently needed. An Oireachtas Commission Bill, which will grant the Dβil and Seanad greater autonomy over their funding is due to be published in December. And a range of Dβil reforms, from electronic voting to longer sitting hours and changed procedures are planned. All in all, it promises to be an interesting Dail session.