Cautious Cowen springs a few surprises

ANALYSIS Brian Cowen has given a new flavour to the Cabinet, but not too much of it, writes Mark Hennessy

ANALYSISBrian Cowen has given a new flavour to the Cabinet, but not too much of it, writes Mark Hennessy

IN YEARS past, the plinth in front of Leinster House has been the scene for many moments of triumph, tension and, more than occasionally, bad temper.

Gathered in the sunshine outside Leinster House yesterday afternoon, Brian Cowen's closest supporters from his home county sang The Offaly Rover.

The image was joyful, marking both Cowen's undoubted popularity, but also, too, the united Fianna Fáil party that Bertie Ahern has left behind.

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Usually cautious, Cowen has struck a middle ground in his Cabinet choices, even though he was a little more ambitious than Fianna Fáil TDs expected.

However, it is difficult for now to discern how this selection of Ministers is any more equipped to tackle more difficult times than the one left behind by Bertie Ahern.

Séamus Brennan's resignation - partly driven by himself, and partly by a recognition that such a move was required - created room for manoeuvre.

Brian Lenihan's appointment as Minister for Finance marks out the Dublin West TD as a future leader of Fianna Fáil, and, perhaps, Taoiseach.

Since his appointment last year to the Department of Justice, Lenihan has proved an able performer, and with none of the histrionics of his predecessor, Michael McDowell.

However, he now takes over in Merrion Street at the most challenging period for a decade and with the preparation of next year's Budget about to get under way shortly.

Cowen, clearly, has gambled that Lenihan will be able to make the tough decisions required, and "sell" unpalatable messages to the public better than either Dermot Ahern or Michael Martin could have done.

Cowen did not heed the unasked-for-advice from some that he should have made Lenihan Tánaiste as well, opting instead for Donegal's Mary Coughlan.

The choice of the highly popular and able Coughlan is novel, and offers a welcome gender balance to Cowen, who has work to do to appeal to women voters, though it does leave open the possibility that Dublin voters might be less favourable to the party in the post-Ahern era.

Coughlan, who is replaced by Brendan Smith in the Department of Agriculture, will not be a Tánaiste like Cowen, who was a prince-in-waiting - even if he was the most patient of heirs-apparent as Ahern decided on his departure.

Apparently keen to depart foreign affairs, Dermot Ahern, who is a political heavyweight, takes over from Lenihan in justice, where his tough approach is likely to be appreciated.

A number of Ministers will be relieved that they have survived at all: most particularly Martin Cullen, who looked like he had been given a last-minute reprieve from the hangman with news that he has got arts, sport and tourism.

Micheál Martin, who would no doubt liked to have moved to finance to maintain his ambitions to lead Fianna Fáil at a point in the future, moves to foreign affairs.

The Corkman's first challenge in Iveagh House will be to get the Government's campaign for a "Yes" vote passed by voters in next month's referendum.

Minus daily crises with Northern Ireland, however, and a Yes vote on Lisbon - two big "ifs", admittedly - Iveagh House will not be a central player in government.

Mary Hanafin, who has had a difficult time in education, moves to social welfare, the biggest spending department - though one regarded as a demotion by politicians.

Just a short while ago, Hanafin was mooted by some as a future taoiseach - though that ambition has receded because of recent events, and because of yesterday.

Willie O'Dea has pined for a new challenge away from the Department of Defence, but, despite his friendship with Cowen, he has been denied.

However, an experienced hand in defence may well be necessary in coming months depending on what happens to Irish troops serving with the EU mission in Chad.

Brendan Smith's move out of the Minister of State for Children's job, and his replacement by Barry Andrews, must delay the children's referendum, though whether that is Cowen's desire or not is so far unclear.

Not surprisingly, Cowen did not move any of the Ministers from coalition partners, Mary Harney, John Gormley and Eamon Ryan, out of their portfolios.

Indeed, there was little chance that he ever would, given that he hardly wanted to create fears about his ability to run a coalition within hours of taking power.

Seconding his nomination, Green Party leader John Gormley generously praised Cowen - a far cry from a year ago when Greens worried that Ahern understood global warming, but Cowen did not.

However, for those in the Greens worried about the party's identity, Gormley does have the unfortunate tendency to be a note just too enthusiastic at such moments for his own good.

Cowen, Gormley noted, knows that there "must be a strong and unified" government "in a lesson that he has learned so well" from Ahern. For now, that is confidence. In time, it could prove a marker.

Despite the Opposition's inaccurate charges that he had tried and failed to move Harney from health and children, Cowen, in fact, supported her agenda, with no quibbles.

Outlining his demand for public sector reform, Cowen told TDs, after he had named his ministerial team: "We all want better outcomes but the last decade has shown that money on its own will not achieve them."

For years, Cowen has enjoyed the friendship of a close circle in Leinster House, but Batt O'Keeffe is the only one of them to enter the Cabinet room. Affable, and much liked, O'Keeffe, however, has never displayed any particular interest in his new department, though he is a wily political operator.

O'Keeffe's promotion also sends a message to those left unnoticed for now that their day could come in time, possibly after next year's elections.

The decision to appoint the well-liked Dublin North West TD Pat Carey as Government Chief Whip will be highly popular with colleagues.

Furthermore, and this is no small point given that Dublin has lost two Cabinet places, another urban-based TD can rise to fill Carey's former junior drugs jobs.

Taken with the removal of Séamus Brennan's fellow Dublin South TD, Minister of State Tom Kitt, Cowen is clearly gambling, or preparing for generational change.

In his resignation letter, Brennan made it clear that he does not believe his political future is over, and he clearly hinted at his desire for a European job next year.

If he is given his wish by Cowen, Fianna Fáil in Dublin South will face its biggest changes for several decades.

A place where the party has produced two or three seats out of five since time immemorial, Dublin South is already coping with major boundary changes.

Brennan's departure and Kitt's sacking may also lead Progressive Democrat Senator Fiona O'Malley to put her energies into Dublin South to rebuild her career.

Cowen's decision to single out Kitt for sacking, an action deeply painful for the latter, will be taken as a signal that he will set a higher performance bar for ministers in future.

Last September, Cowen was infuriated when the Government came within a vote of losing a motion condemning Aer Lingus's flight from Shannon airpor, and transfer to Belfast.

Rightly, or wrongly, the blame was laid at the door of Kitt, who must have hoped for a promotion in the hour between Brennan's departure announcement and his sacking.

In the world of politics, fortunes can quickly change.