Tension is growing between the political parties as the date for the Meath and Kildare North by-elections approaches. Party leaders recognise that the performance of their candidates will set the political tone for months to come and could have a direct bearing on the formation of the next government. So, with two weeks until polling day, voters in the two constituencies are being wooed intensively.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has already cautioned voters in Kildare North about the difficulties that could arise if the constituency was left without a Fianna Fáil representative. And, over in Meath, the party is attempting to win a fourth seat out of the five. At the same time, the Tánaiste and leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Harney, has opted for a repeat of her general election strategy and has rejected any voting arrangement with Fianna Fáil.
The leaders of Fine Gael and the Labour Party, Mr Enda Kenny and Mr Pat Rabbitte, announced the establishment of a voting pact earlier this week. But they emphasised that the arrangement was purely local, designed to punish the Government for its poor performance and broken promises, rather than set the terms on which the parties may contest the next general election. Meanwhile, the Green Party has decided to maintain an independent stance in the by-elections and is concentrating on the long-term development of the party.
Transport facilities, housing and public services are likely to dominate the campaigns in these once-rural constituencies that are now part of a greater Dublin conurbation. But Northern Ireland will also figure prominently as Fine Gael makes an issue of the possible release of the killers of Det Garda Jerry McCabe and the Government pressurises republicans to complete the transition to democratic politics.
Sinn Féin doubled its vote in the local elections of last year and the performance of its candidates on this occasion will be seen as a litmus test of the public's response to revelations concerning money-laundering and other IRA activities.
Fine Gael and the Labour Party are hoping for a repeat of last year's local elections when support for Fianna Fáil fell significantly. Even if that happens, however, there is no certainty they can capitalise on the situation. They must win at least one of the seats in order to project themselves as the nucleus of an alternative government. But Fianna Fáil still dominates both constituencies in voting power. Labour must do well in Kildare North if Mr Rabbitte is to convince his party conference, next May, of the benefits of a formal alliance with Fine Gael. And Fine Gael would suffer a severe jolt if it lost Mr John Bruton's seat in Meath.
An outcome that would upset both camps - and hopes for an alternative government - would be a Fianna Fáil win in Meath, with Fine Gael taking Kildare North. In the end, it will all come down to voting transfers.