In the event Mr Tony Blair's first shuffle has been much as expected, consolidating his control of a cabinet inherited from opposition days and positioning influential supporters to pursue his New Labour agenda more effectively for the remainder of this parliamentary term. The changes of personnel signal continuity of policy and a determination by Mr Blair that it will be more coherently managed across the range of departments. They also reveal that factionalism between those perceived as more loyal to him than to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Gordon Brown, is more important than that between party traditionalists and modernisers.
Although Mr Blair's personal position is altogether unchallenged within his party and is considerably strengthened by this shuffle, it does represent a coming of age for his government. While Labour still enjoys a commanding lead over the Conservatives there has been some slippage, notably in Scotland and Wales towards nationalist parties. Recently economic performance has slowed down, leading to fear of a recession in manufacturing industry caused by the strength of sterling. Interest rates remain relatively high while overall growth has slowed back, confirming Britain's distinctive economic cycle in the EU perspective.
Mr Brown's recent announcement about increased public expenditure, which was followed by detailed departmental statements last week, forms the essential political and budgetary background to yesterday's cabinet changes. The strategies laid down on welfare reform, education, industrial competitiveness, constitutional change and Europe will dictate policy in the run up to the next elections.
Thus Dr Jack Cunningham's appointment as the senior minister in charge of implementing government policy and its chief spokesman signals Mr Blair's determination to maintain control over strategy by a minister undisputedly loyal to the prime minister's approach. The departure of Ms Harriet Harman and Mr Frank Field from the social security department, where they failed to make decisive progress on welfare reform, is accompanied by a clearly enunciated mandate to ensure it is vigorously pursued in coming months by Mr Alisdair Darling. The appointment of Mr Peter Mandelson to a full cabinet post as Secretary for Trade and Industry will test his skills, as well as confirming his closeness to Mr Blair.
Commentators detect a warning shot to Mr Brown's faction in these changes not to press their case too strongly. But the Chancellor's economic management is crucial to Labour's success. It remains to be seen whether Baroness Jay's appointment as leader of the House of Lords foretells a weakening of resolve to reform that institution. Welcome and expected is Dr Mo Mowlam's continued responsibility for Northern Ireland.