Opinion

Eviction ban removal will hit those on cusp of homelessness and may prove unforgivable

There is every reason to believe that homelessness will now return to the level of growth seen prior to the moratorium

There is every reason to believe that homelessness will now return to the level of growth seen prior to the moratorium. Photograph: iStock

Wayne Stanley
Tue Mar 7 2023 - 11:57

In the past governments have been criticised for not being ambitious enough, or for waiting too long to take an important step in the fight against homelessness. But this Government’s decision not to extend the moratorium on eviction is the first time that there has been a demonstrable, conscious, backward step and a reduction of support, for those at immediate risk of homelessness.

The moratorium didn’t have the immediate and dramatic impact some may have hoped. The ongoing increases in homelessness is a cause of great concern but a nuanced reading of the trend in homelessness is required to understand what the monthly homeless figures are telling us.

Family homelessness within Dublin has continued to increase and we didn’t see the usual fall in family homelessness in December. That fall has occurred in previous years with no eviction moratorium. This points to the fact that the increases are more to do with the dearth of move on options and how overstretched the housing system is.

The number of families being made homeless in Dublin actually fell during the eviction ban but the total number increased because of the difficulty of finding new homes for them.

READ MORE

However, it’s not hopeless. Looking across the rest of Ireland, December and January saw a fall in the number of families in homelessness. While a fall in family homelessness in December is usual, two consecutive months is not.

A similar differentiation between Dublin and the rest of Ireland emerges when we look at the number of adults in homeless emergency accommodation. Adult homelessness outside of Dublin fell during the month of January, when the experience has been increases.

There are a number of factors that will determine these outcomes and the positive indicators rely on the January figures, so it is important not to overstate what they tell us. However, while we have to be slow to proclaim the moratorium to be a success based on the figures above, the frontline experience of seeing men, women and children saved from the trauma of homelessness in combination with those numbers, make it clear that that the moratorium was working.

The most significant reason we didn’t see the results hoped for lies in the fact of the ongoing challenges to secure exits from homelessness. Official figures show that in 2022, 2,817 adults moved on from homelessness into a tenancy. That’s 48% lower than in 2021. This is where we had to see progress before we lifted the moratorium.

That is not to ignore the concerns raised about the impact a continuation of the moratorium would have had on the exodus of landlords from the private rental market. Research commissioned by the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB), showed that those leaving the market are older and seeking to liquidate their investment. This suggests there is little that can immediately be done to hold landlords that have made the decision to leave the market. Yet it has to be acknowledged, a rolling moratorium could have undermined the confidence of landlords who have not yet made the decision to leave the market.

We also have to recognise that lifting the moratorium will not restore the confidence of landlords. As we look to the end of March and the consequences of lifting the moratorium, there is little chance that we will see a slowing of the exit of landlords. There is every reason to believe that homelessness will return to the level of growth seen prior to the moratorium. This will, in a matter of months, see homeless services stretched beyond breaking point and a new moratorium will have to be considered in the future. This can only increase the feelings of uncertainty in property owners, that is posited as a driver of the exit of homes from the private rental market, and for the Government lifting the ban on evictions.

 

We needed a forward-thinking plan. The Government should not have agreed to lift the moratorium before the infrastructure to ensure that the numbers experiencing homelessness could fall, was in place. Making the decision to extend the moratorium would have necessitated the relevant stakeholders coming together to agree a schedule of ambitious monthly targets and it would give confidence to property owners and the wider public. It’s no easy task but nothing in housing is easily achieved.

While I don’t doubt that the work to enhance initiatives such as rapid build, tenant in situ purchase schemes and vacancy schemes will continue, it should have been done with the pressure on Government, relevant departments and local authorities. The pressure should not have been thrust upon those individuals and families, who before today, had respite from the fear of homelessness provided by the moratorium.

By its decision, the Government has heaped pressure on those on the cusp of homelessness. As the consequences of this decision play out in the coming months, it may prove to be unforgivable.

Wayne Stanley is Executive Director of Simon Communities of Ireland

LATEST STORIES